Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Monday Night: Clear. Low: 28
Tuesday: Sunny sky. High: 59
Tuesday Night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low: 49
Wednesday: Cloudy with rain in the afternoon. High: 59
Wednesday Night: Rain with possible freezing rain in early morning. Low: 32
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Forecasters: McMullen, Millsap, Cochran
Date Issued: 2/14/2022 5:00PM CST
The 12Z run of the GFS20 was used in the development of this forecast. While the pressure contours on the GFS and the NAM were similar, the GFS was chosen mainly due the GEFS temperature plumes. The modeled temperatures were very close to the current conditions at Sanborn field. Also, there is high agreement between the different model runs for the next couple of days. GFS soudings and GEFS plumes were also utilized for sky conditions and precipitation.
The problem of the day for this forecast is the rain and winter weather event occurring Wednesday and Wednesday Night.
A shortwave trough is currently moving out of the Midwest and into the eastern CONUS, seen on the 250 mb plot of heights, winds, and divergence. Zonal flow is present over Missouri, and will dominate the upper levels until Wednesday at 12Z. At this time, two jet streaks begin to couple over Missouri and Iowa, pushed east by a trough over the Four Corners region. These jet streaks, paired with upper level divergence, monopolizes the Upper Mississippi River Valley region. These will aid in the formation of clouds and the production of rain through the rest of the forecast period.
Circulation associated with a LPS over the Great Lakes is shifting away from our area, visualized on the 500 mb plot of heights and vorticity. About 18Z Wednesday, we will see a strong increase in spotty areas of circulation. These areas of circulation will also aid in the formation of rain through the remaining forecast period.
Moisture associated with previously mentioned LPS has shifted eastward out of the Mississippi Valley earlier today on the 700 mb plot of heights, winds, and relative humidity. Except for a shortwave ridge traversing the central CONUS, Missouri remains calm at this level until 0Z Thursday. At this time, moisture affiliated with the previously mentioned trough and LPS over the Four Corners region will saturated our area through the end of the forecasting period. This moisture will also aid in the production of rainfall on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
On the 850 mb plot of heights, winds, and temperature, winds over Missouri are currently shifting from NW to SW. This shift in wind direction helps to raise temperatures throughout Tuesday. Strong winds may also affect Columbia during this period. The winds at this level will be steadfast until they begin to deviate at the end of the forecast period, brought on by the aforementioned Four Corners LPS.
Strong solenoids are present on the 1000-500 mb plot of thickness and MSLP, bringing about WAA over Missouri from 12Z Tuesday through 18Z Wednesday. However, this will end a wind shift to the north associated with the aforementioned LPS. Using GFS soundings, the sky will be fairly clear through 0Z Wednesday, when clouds begin to move into our region. At 16Z Wednesday, an area near the surface begins to moistened with rain expected by 18Z Wednesday. Some heavy rain and thunder is possible around 0Z Thursday, as seen by the high K index and TT values and significant forcing. Freezing rain is also possible around 12Z Thursday with the dropping temperatures. However, this transition was only picked up the the NAM and not the GFS. The transition to snow will begin near the end of the forecast period. QPF totals are expected to be between 1" and 1.25" for the entire forecast period.
Future forecasts should carefully watch the timing of the transition between rain and snow and the ways that the timing will affect QPF and snow totals.
-McMullen
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