Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Monday Night: Cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms Low: 56

Tuesday: Chance of showers in the morning, clearing to partly cloudy in the afternoon High: 56

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 18

Wednesday: Increasing clouds with a small chance of flurries. High: 28

 

Wednesday Night: Snow likely. High: 22

 

 

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Discussion:

Say goodbye to these average temperatures! Monday night will see some showers with a chance for thunderstorms. Total precipitation amounts are expected to be less than 0.2" for these showers. On Tuesday, a cold front will begin to push through Columbia, causing temperatures to continue to fall throughout the day. Wednesday also has a chance for precipitation, in the form of snow, brought to us by a low pressure system from our southwest. Wednesday and Wednesday night have a moderate likelihood of snow, so keep an eye on the weather for your Wednesday evening commute. Total snowfall accumulations are expected to be about 0.5" by Thursday morning.

-McMullen

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Forecasters: McMullen, Millsap, Cochran

Date Issued: 2/21/2022 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

The GFS20 model was chosen for this forecast due to its handling of surface temperatures. In regards to the recent fluctuations in temperature, the model tended to undershoot the observed values by 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit. This discrepancy was taken into account throughout the development of the forecast. Focus was given primarily to the rain event expected on Tuesday and the appearance of winter weather on Wednesday.

 

Missouri is currently positioned between a split jet streak as seen on the 250 mb plots of heights, winds, and divergence. These will merge into one jet streak once a patch of divergence aloft takes hold over the area early Tuesday morning. This single jet streak will then continue to persist over the Midwest in a zonal pattern as a second round of upper air divergence transpires over Missouri on Wednesday afternoon.

 

A round of significant vorticity at 500 mb enters central Missouri Monday night and continues to rotate through the majority of Tuesday. This disturbance could be evidence of a convective thunderstorm that may take place later Monday evening. This possibility could be reinforced by the 700 mb relative humidity imagery, which indicated areas of deep moisture and considerable amounts of vertical lift. Further evidence could be found in the 12Z GFS soundings; MU CAPE values reaching about 600 J/kg along with the aforementioned vertical lift will provide a modest convective capability for Monday night. The presence of southerly winds have also been noted at 700 mb, providing the moisture needed to bolster the moisture needed for the storm's development. In terms of rainfall accumulation, less than a quarter of an inch is estimated since most of the storms will remain south of Columbia.

A low pressure center was located passing over Iowa at 850 mb early Tuesday morning, heading toward the Great Lakes. Not only will temperatures drop once the cyclone passes, but the 850 mb winds will also shift from the southwest to take on a more northwesterly flow. Wind speeds at this level will also decrease once the cold front passes, decreasing from 35 knots to about 10 knots.

 

As the surface winds shift to a northerly direction, MSLP paired with 1000-500mb thickness contours formed solenoids that indicates CAA will dominate on Wednesday and will result in a major decrease in temperatures throughout the day. Most of the day will remain calm until around 00Z on the 24th; a deep moisture layer in the lower levels was indicated through the 12Z soundings with only a small dry layer near the surface. This will not be enough to rule out the possibility of precipitation. In regards to precipitation type, snow is the most likely to occur due to the sounding temperatures being under the freezing level. This would indicate a lack of warm layers that would result in mixed precipitation. Total snowfall is estimated to be about half an inch by Thursday morning. The snow will continue through Thursday where total snowfall accumulation should be more closely examined.

 

- Millsap