Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday: Mostly cloudy, clearing some this afternoon. High: 28

Friday Night: High clouds after sunset. Low: 15

 

 

Saturday: Scattered high clouds. High: 40

Saturday Night: Scattered clouds. Low: 24

 

Sunday: Clear and sunny. High: 49

 

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Discussion:

    

Wintry flurries will peter out as the morning continues and the winter system moves east out of our region. Be mindful of icy road conditions still present on some side roads. Low clouds will block some daytime warming today before the sky starts to clear a bit this afternoon. Some high clouds should persist through Saturday as Columbia experiences very light winds out of the southwest. Temperatures will be on the rise Sunday and into next week, closing out a calm weekend despite a weak cold front pushing through the Midwest Sunday morning. 

- Schneringer

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Forecasters: Schneringer, VanUnnik, Bongard

Date Issued: 2/25/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical Discussion: 

   

The NAM40 was used for this forecast, and GFS20 was consulted for more accurate temperature forecasting. The NAM handled the atmospheric flow and pressure systems better, while the GFS handled temperatures better. The main area of focus for this forecast is the weak cold front that will pass through mid-Missouri on Sunday morning, and how it will affect temperatures throughout the day.

The Midwest is captivated by a zonal flow aloft, while a positively tilted trough drapes over the western half of CONUS. This trough makes its way east, and the axis centers over Missouri on Sunday morning.

Strong circulation at 500mb is pulled into the area on Sunday morning, and behind it, a northerly wind shift; both being associated with the frontal system.

Moisture advects into mid-Missouri at 700mb on Saturday morning. This moisture sticks around all day and night, causing a cloudy sky, before the aforementioned trough dries out the area on Sunday morning. Precipitation from this system is not expected at this time due to a lack of moisture at the surface.

The 850mb map, along with soundings, can be used for a more precise timing of the cold front on Sunday morning, which is expected to be around 09z. However, due to the timing and the weak winds, this front should not impact Columbia's weather too much. After FROPA, Missouri is going to experience daytime heating, along with clear skies, and Sunday is looking to have a higher temperature than previous days.

CAA takes place on Friday, and on Friday night and Saturday, a closed high can be seen over Missouri. Cold air remains throughout the forecast period, but on Sunday night, WAA may take place. Future forecasters should see warmer temperatures early next week.

-VanUnnik