Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6:00am Thursday

 

Wednesday Night: Overcast and snow. Low: 13

Thursday: Overcast, light snow in the morning. High: 18

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, winds close to 20 mph. Low: 2

Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 24

Friday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 3

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

Hope everybody is enjoying the snow! Although the snow has let up on Wednesday afternoon, it isn’t finished yet! Another batch of snow will move through tonight into Thursday morning, where 2-4 inches of additional accumulation is possible. After the snow ends on Thursday morning, clouds will hang around until Friday before they begin to clear out. The snow, along with the clearing skies will cause temperatures to plummet into the single digits for lows Friday morning, with wind chill values below 0. Temperatures on Friday hold in the 20s with sunshine, meaning any significant melting of the snow fall will not be occurring!

- Meyer

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Forecasters: Heienickle, Meyer, Orr

Date Issued: 2/2/2022 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion: 

After consulting current weather conditions at Sanborn Field, a combination of the GFS and NAM models will be used. Both models align well with the surface maps seen at 18Z Wednesday. Current temperatures at Sanborn field more closely align with the GFS’s forecasted temperature for 21Z. However, the NAM forecasted the current precipitation total in Columbia more accurately. The predicted snowfall, occurring over the next day, will be the greatest focus of this forecast.

Wednesday night will see continued snowfall. In the upper atmosphere, Mid-Missouri will enter another time period under an upper-level jet with heavy winds of up to 150 kts. Strong circulation is present at 500 mb with increased relative humidity. These strong northerly winds in the upper level and at the surface will contribute to decreasing temperatures this week. Snowfall is likely after 03Z bringing in an estimated 2-4 inches of snow overnight. Snowfall will continue throughout the night.

Thursday morning will continue to see the potential for snow, as Columbia remains to the east of the upper-level trough. Vorticity in the upper atmosphere and persistently high levels of relative humidity at 700 mb contribute to the potential continuation of this snowstorm. The potential for snow will decrease after 18Z Thursday as moisture moves out of Columbia.

Thursday night around 06Z Friday the upper-level jet will begin to move to the east and out of Columbia. Positive Vorticity Advection is small as the storm continues to move out of Missouri. Winds continue to come from the North, causing gusts as high as 25mph at the surface.

Friday morning by 12Z is the first time relative humidity levels drop below 70%. Clouds will likely begin to clear due to the decreased moisture in the upper atmosphere. By 15Z Friday, the upper-level trough will be over Columbia, bringing stability to the upper atmosphere. Circulation remains minimal on Friday. Soundings for Friday afternoon support a lack of moisture which will help the sky remain clear throughout the day.

Friday night at 250 mb, upper-level winds will decrease as the jet streak moves to the east, allowing for continued stability to the upper atmosphere. By 0Z Saturday, all circulation at 500 mb has exited Missouri. Circulation and relative humidity levels continue to weaken by Friday night, indicating the sky will remain mostly clear throughout the night. Temperatures will remain low due to the wind present.

Those traveling for work should take caution on roads and add extra time into their commute. The wind will likely continue to blow due to high winds on Thursday so take into account limited visibility during this time. Low-level temperatures in the single digits will persist the remainder of the week, please stay warm!!

- Heienickle