Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 33
 

 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High: 50
 

 

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 26
 

 

Thursday: Partly cloudy becoming sunny. High: 43

 

Thursday Night: Mostly clear then partly cloudy. Low: 35

 

 

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Discussion:

The snow from last week is already tired of us, so it's melting away. Tonight, expect to see a partly cloudy sky with surface temperatures staying just above freezing. There is a weak cold front that will traverse the region overnight, but no precipitation. Tomorrow should be another beautiful day with a partly cloudy sky, high temperatures in the low 50's, and a light breeze of about 5 kts from the west/northwest. Later in the afternoon Wednesday, the winds could reach as high as 15 kts, but will die back down in the early evening to around 5 kts. Wednesday night will see slightly cooler temperatures of the upper 20's as NW winds bring in some slightly cooler air. As we wake up Thursday morning, some clouds will still be in the area, but will clear out mid-morning giving us a high temperature in the low/mid-40's. Thursday night begin mostly clear and will become cloudier as the night moves on due to the passage of a warm front. The front will also bring warmer air and a SW wind at about 5-10 kts. Before this warm front hits, the low temperature of the night is expected to be in the mid-30's.

-Alexander

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Forecasters: Alexander, Duff, Orr

Date Issued: 2/08/22 5:00 PM CST

Technical discussion:  

The 12Z run of the GFS was used for this forecast because of its handle on high and low temperatures for the coming days. Both NAM and GFS are in agreement with this atmospheric set up and current conditions for the coming days, but the large spread in the NAM for SREF Plumes indicates that the GFS is more apt to handle to the upcoming mild conditions

The story of this forecast period is rather boring. With the exception of a couple short wave disturbances moving through Tuesday and Wednesday night as seen at 250-mb. Most of the weather for the next few days will be influenced by low pressure systems in Canada and the clipper systems associated with these. As they move through they will bring some clouds but nothing in terms of exciting weather.

At 500-mb, a line of higher values of vorticity will move through Central Missouri early Tuesday night. This is associated with the short-wave disturbances and is associated with the low pressure system to the north of the great lakes and the weak cold front attached. Although, the high levels of vorticity look promising a lack of moisture will rule out the chance for any precipitation and only leave a partly cloudy sky overnight on Tuesday.

A lack of moisture is the a common theme for the next few days in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Very low values of Relative Humidity at 700-mb will keep the region dry. Some higher levels of RH will move through midday on Wednesday, but will only result in partly covered skies due to a lack of forcing and lift. Another smaller area of RH moves through on Thursday, resulting in a partly cloudy sky early on Thursday, but the sky will clear throughout the day as most of the moisture will stay south.

The difficulty in this forecast is what will happen with surface high and low temperatures. With a clear sky and lots of sunshine, temperatures should be warm for daytime highs, but snow cover on the ground may inhibit some of the warming. A weak cold front also moves through the region 00Z Wednesday. Winds stay out of the West/ Northwest on Wednesday and and Thursday. Low temperatures will be cool despite the warmer daytime highs thanks to the lack of cloud cover and a snow covered ground. A warm up can be expected Thursday night after a warm front moves through the area 03Z Friday. The nighttime low temperature will be early in the evening before the front passes.

The future forecasters should pay attention to how the high and low temperatures are affected by the melting snowpack and for watch another disturbance on Friday.

-Duff