Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6:00am Thursday

 

Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Rain transitioning to wintry mix then snow. Low: 19

 

Wednesday: Cloudy. Snow. High: 19 

Wednesday Night :  Cloudy. Heavy snow. Low: 13

 

Thursday: Cloudy. Snow tapering off in the afternoon. High: 20

 

Thursday Night: Cloudy becoming mostly clear. Low: 2

 

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Discussion:

A low pressure system to our south and associated winter storm is expected for Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon. The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Columbia and the surrounding area. Rain on Tuesday will transition into freezing precipitation including the potential of freezing rain, sleet, and snow in the late hours of Tuesday and early morning Wednesday. Snow will persist throughout the night on Wednesday with accumulations of more than 4 inches before sunrise. Dry air will inhibit falling snow Wednesday afternoon, leading to periods of lighter to halted snowfall. However, another round of snowy precipitation is expected overnight into Thursday with an additional 6 to 10 inches likely. After sunrise Thursday snow will begin to slow, ending mid-day Thursday. Total accumulations are expected to be around 10 to 14 inches.

-Duff

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Forecasters: Alexander, Duff, Orr

Date Issued: 2/1/2022 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion: 

I hope everyone enjoyed a warm Tuesday morning, because the rest of the week will be cold and snowy. Due to the imminent snow storm across the Mid-Mississippi Valley region, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Columbia and the surrounding area. The GFS is the deterministic model that was used for majority of this forecasting period. Other models were also consulted, including NBM, GEFS, SREF, and the HRRR. I selected GFS because of its handle on current conditions and its track record for winter weather forecasting. The three ensembles were used to assist in snowfall totals and temperature forecasts. The HRRR was used primarily to see, and to eventually rule out, if there might be a convective aspect to this system.

Currently, a nearly cut-off low pressure system over the Texas Panhandle has been pumping warm, moist air into the Mid-Mississippi Valley region. This allowed us Columbians to wake up to temperatures that were well above seasonal averages. We started the day with southerly winds, but as of around 21Z, the surface cold front passed and now winds are coming from the north-northeast. These winds will persist throughout the forecast period with speeds between 10 and 15 knots and the possibility of gusts over 30 knots. In Columbia, rain has been falling throughout most of the day as the temperatures have begun dropping. As the evening progresses, the temperature will continue to drop causing the rain to become a wintry mix of freezing precipitation, including freezing rain, sleet, and eventually snow.

Beginning around 03Z Wednesday, our surface and near surface temperatures will drop below freezing, causing the precipitation type to shift from liquid rain to freezing precipitation, likely freezing rain and sleet. Before midnight, the lower and mid-level temperatures are expected to drop below freezing, changing the precipitation type to snow. The precipitation type is expected to remain as snow throughout the duration of the forecast period. 4-6 inches can be expected by sunrise Wednesday morning.

During the day Wednesday, we can expect to pick up another ~2 inches of snow before a low-level dry nose comes down from the northwest. This warm nose will cause at least a drop in snow intensity, and maybe even temporarily stop snow from falling. During this time, snow may be blown into our area as sustained low and mid-level winds will be howling at 30 knots. As the sun sets Wednesday, warm, moist air will begin funneling into the southern parts of the system, pushing the dry nose back north and making overhead precipitation possible again. Overnight Wednesday, another ~2.5 inches of snow is expected to accumulate.

As the low pressure system weakens mid-day Thursday, we can expect the snow to finally come to a stop. Cold, Canadian dry air will force out the remaining moisture throughout the day and into the night. Storm totals of snow are predicted to be 10-14 inches. Overnight Thursday, air will start to dry out and most of the clouds will vanish by sunrise, causing a dangerously low temperature of around 2 degrees.

This snow is looking to be a heavy, wet snow, so use caution when around branches and other overhead objects that can accumulate large amounts of snow. Traveling in these conditions will be very treacherous as well, so plan ahead can ensure that you and your loved ones are prepared to be stuck inside for a couple of days. The dangerously low temperatures should be planned for, as well.

-Alexander