Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 52

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High: 72

Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms possible. Low: 40

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High: 55

Sunday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 38

 

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Discussion:

A calm Friday evening and into Saturday for Columbia. An end to our fair weather is then on the way with a cold front entering the region overnight Saturday. This will bring with it a chance of precipitation and possibly thunderstorms. The fairly warm temperatures in mid-Missouri are foretelling rain for Saturday night. On Sunday night, however, there's a good a chance for mixed precipitation so be extra careful on the roads as the temperatures begin to fall. 

-Ethridge

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Forecasters: Ethridge, McDonald, Watts

Date Issued: 03/04/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

 

The 12Z run of NAM40 was used in this forecast mainly because of GFS inconsistencies in identifying accurate high and low pressure systems.

At 250 mb we have a meridional flow with a strong ridge drifting over the Midwest along with strong southwesterly winds of 70-80 knots. A lower level jet will be drifting over Mid-Missouri on Saturday at 3Z followed by divergence aloft through the end of this forecast period. The Midwest will also be getting a cold front veering over itself Saturday night due to the strong wind shift.

While there is a ridge that will drift over Missouri Saturday, it will transition into a strong trough on Sunday morning along with strong vorticity causing concern for some showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. The low pressure system will lead to rising motion and a trough in the Midwest  transitioning away from low vorticity and the ridge, meaning a chance for mixed precipitation is likely Sunday night.

700 mb readings indicate that tranquility will continue for the next 24 hours, as no major sources of moisture or omega should enter the area during that time period. However, a strong cold front will push through the Midwest late Saturday night, bringing a wall of moisture into the forecast area around 3z Sunday. The adjoining LPS will be centered north of the state, though, with the most concentrated values of uplift and humidity sweeping through Iowa instead. What follows is a brief period of inactivity for Sunday afternoon, before a weaker trough moves over Northwest Missouri, near Monday at 3z. Late Sunday night, near a much larger pocket of moisture flowing in from the southwest, putting us in the crosshairs for any precipitation the storm may bring. 

 

850 mb shows warm air receding Saturday, though is still strong enough to influence patterns over Missouri as the cold front passes through that night. This along with a lack of a definitive wind shift, should ensure that impacts from the front will be moderate in nature. Sunday will remain quiet until the overnight hours where the weaker, but more direct, trough cuts through. Temperatures drop further, and a sharp wind speed gradient should make precipitation, perhaps of multiple forms, very likely.

 

While inactivity continues through tonight, surface analysis supports the cooling trend through the weekend - the first significant cooling on Saturday night, and the second on Sunday night. Temperatures will still be high enough Saturday night to guarantee that any scattered precipitation will be in the form of rain, as the coldest areas in the wake of the front appear to bottom out in the high 30s. Temperatures will have all day Sunday to warm before the second trough barrels through that night, the center of which tracks along the path of I-44. With the center positioned to our south at this level, winter precipitation could certainly be a possibility - though it will ultimately depend on how warm our high will reach on Sunday. 

 

Skew-T soundings support the prediction of two precipitation waves, with high amounts of moisture availability present at 21z Saturday. By 6z Sunday morning conditions are much drier, but appear to build back in by 21z Sunday. Like Saturday night, Sunday night’s soundings are indicative of primarily rain, though the warm nose/temperature inversion is much more defined. Slight changes in this inversion could easily result in freezing rain or sleet, but snow appears to be one of the more unlikely events to occur. 

 

Future forecasters should make note of high pressure approaching Missouri on Monday, potentially inducing another sharp reversal of trends into a possibility of warmer weather later next week.

 - Watts, McDonald