Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 34

Friday: Partly cloudy. High: 68

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 54

Saturday: Warmer, less clouds. High: 72

Saturday Night: Showers moving in late. Low: 40
 

 

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Discussion:

In true Missouri fashion, a wide swath of temperatures and weather will be in store for us as we move into the weekend. Our weather will initially remain pleasant for the Columbia area, with temperatures near 70 and little troubling cloud cover. However, this trend will be upset Saturday evening when a Low Pressure System moves from Kansas into Iowa. A cold front extending from this low will sweep through Missouri, bringing back cooler temperatures and cloud cover. Luckily, due to little moisture present above our region, only trace amounts of precipitation is expected for the Mid-Missouri area.

- Noblitt

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Forecasters: Splater, Noblitt, Vochatzer

Date Issued: 3/03/2022 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

The GFS20 was utilized for this forecast as it handled current temperatures and features well. Little variation was seen with other models as well as fairly tranquil conditions persisting through most of the forecast period. The NBM was also consulted for precipitation chances and cloud cover over the next few days.

The cooler weather for today will be short-lived as we return to a warmer flow regime to kick off the weekend. Winds aloft will begin to veer from the west tonight before a shift to southerly flow into Saturday. These changes come ahead of the first precipitation chances this region has seen nearly all week.

 

Conditions remain favorable ahead of the rain, save for more cloud cover Friday and Saturday. This is supported by scattered upper level divergence and marginal moisture, but there are no forcing mechanisms to bring any premature showers. Temperatures will also be bolstered by renewed WAA and highs will return to above average tomorrow and Saturday.

 

An upper level low will move onshore over southern California mid-Friday before translating northeast during the weekend. It will track well north of our area by late Saturday, sending a cold front sweeping through near 00Z Sunday. RH and 500 mb vorticity increase significantly with fropa progged from 00Z to 03Z Sunday. However, instability is lacking with less than ideal amounts of CAPE and pronounced low level wind shear that will work against potentially developing updrafts. Showers and occasional rumbles of thunder will still be likely. The Storm Prediction Center has our area under a marginal risk for severe storms, mainly due to high winds. 850 wind speeds will approach 50 kts early Sunday so damaging winds and power outages may be a concern with this system.

 

The bulk of the rainfall and storms will move in after this forecast period, though the NBM indicates trace precipitation late Saturday night. Conditions clear rapidly behind the front before another batch of active weather early next week.

- Splater