Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Winter Weather Advisory until March 11, 06:00am
Thursday Night: Overcast with snow throughout the night. Low: 26
Friday: Snow in the morning, overcast. High: 33
Friday Night: Clouds clearing through the night. Low: 11
Saturday: Clear early, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High: 32
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 23
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Discussion:
Looks like winter isn’t quite done with Missouri as we settle in for another batch of cold temperatures and snow. The snowfall will continue through tonight and into Friday morning, with our sky remaining overcast. Friday night will see a high pressure system slide across Kansas and into southern Missouri Saturday morning, which will help break up our cloud cover. This will also give some warming as our winds shift to the south for Saturday night just in time for us all to “spring forward” with Daylight Savings beginning Sunday. Anticipated precipitation for mid-Missouri is expected to be around 2” of snow through Friday morning.
- Noblitt
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Forecasters: Noblitt, Splater
Date Issued: 3/10/2022 5:00PM CST
A blend of models was used for this forecast due to impending winter weather. This includes the GFS and NAM as well as the RAP and NAM for snow guidance. Overall, models concur with current conditions and many factors going forward, with only marginal differences in temperatures.
A bout of snow will be likely this evening as mid and upper level dynamics align over our region. At 200 mb, a jet streak will form overhead with wind speeds approaching 120 kts and will remain in place through Friday. This, along with mid-level forcing and frontogenesis, will allow for a round of snow overnight. What are currently light flakes will shift to steady snow showers beginning at 03Z and tapering off just after 06Z Friday. Columbia will see 2-2.5” of snow by tomorrow morning with areas to our east receiving lesser amounts.
Another winter threat looms behind the snow as bitter cold returns for the start of the weekend. A trough ejecting from the four corners regions into the central CONUS will push temperatures over 20℉ below average on Friday night. Persistent northerly flow in the mid and lower levels will also likely keep temperatures near or below freezing through Saturday. The axis of the upper level trough swings through around 09Z Saturday, and hefty westerly flow following will lead to fairer conditions next week.
Surface winds shift more southerly heading into Sunday which warms temperatures back to near, or possibly above, seasonal averages. Another trough will then dig into the western U.S. and may lead to more active conditions early next week.
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