Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday Night: Clouds return with showers and storms after midnight. Low: 49

Friday: Soggy with rain throughout the day. High: 54

Friday Night: Rain ending late evening. Low: 38

Saturday: Clouds exit early. High: 59

 

Saturday Night: Clear and calm. Low: 38

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:
It’ll be a soggy end to St. Patty’s Day with a chance for showers and storms overnight. Evening plans will still be good to go though, with rain holding off until near midnight. A few storms will be possible tonight as well, but conditions won’t be favorable in our region for a severe threat. Rain will persist throughout the day on Friday before finally tapering off in the evening. Rainfall totals will be just shy of 1”. A sun-filled sky will greet Mid-MO by late afternoon Saturday, and seasonable conditions are in store for the weekend.
-Splater

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Forecasters: Splater, Noblitt, Vochatzer

Date Issued: 3/17/2022 5:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

For our forecast, both the GFS20 and NAM40 were consulted due to their close projection of the MSLP across the CONUS, as well as the location of a LPS near central Texas that will impact our weather over the next few days, as well as a HPS over eastern Idaho. Additionally, both the SREF and GEFS plumes were reasonably close to the current temperature at Sanborn, with the GEFS plumes running a few degrees colder. As such, the SREF and GEFS plumes were combined with the NBM for temperature forecasting, while GFS and NAM soundings were used for cloud cover. The HRRR was referenced for precipitation guidance alongside the NBM.

Looking at the 300mb plot of winds, heights, and divergence, we see a very dynamic set up as a LPS located over the Texas Panhandle pushes east into Oklahoma. This low disrupts the jet streaks as they attempt to couple, creating a massive wall of divergence ahead of the low as it moves. This divergence will reside over Missouri from 0Z Friday through 18Z Friday as the low advances up into Central Missouri at this time. The low will then travel off to our northeast late Friday night. After this we remain in a zonal flow until very early Sunday morning when a ridge to our west forces its way into the Mississippi Valley.

Next, the 500mb plot of winds, heights, and vorticity helps to illustrate our conditions as a massive amount of circulation surrounds the low of Texas. This large area of vorticity will proceed into Missouri around midnight Thursday, coinciding with the divergence seen on the previous layer. Strong bands of circulation will remain over the Middle Mississippi Valley through the late morning Saturday before the ridge begins to progress into the region.

The 700mb plot of winds, heights, RH, and omega shows a large batch of moisture associated with the low as it moves into Missouri 3Z Friday. The presence of lift as indicated by the omega values as well as everything seen in the previous layers supports the development of significant cloud cover, as well as the chance of precipitation throughout the event. This moisture lasts through 12Z Saturday, indicating a clearing of the sky during the time period. Following this no other sources of moisture make it into our region for the remainder of the forecasting period.

Ending with the 850mb plot of winds, heights, temperatures, and dewpoints shows some slight warming ahead of the low with strong southerly winds. As the low advances to our northeast, the trailing cold front will sweep across Columbia bringing our winds out of the northwest. However, this is short-lived as our winds change to the west with the progression of the ridge from the west. Observing the MSLP and 1000-500mb thickness plots shows some CAA occurring after the low’s passage, which will see our temperatures cool off.

Soundings indicate significant cloud cover over Columbia early Friday morning into early Saturday morning. Indices and CAPE point towards precipitation but no threat of severe weather. Total anticipated precipitation is around 0.75" of rain.

Future forecasters should pay attention to a LPS moving across Southwest CONUS for potential of storm development across the Gulf Coast and into our area.

-Noblitt