Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday: Partly cloudy. High: 68

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 54

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High: 72

Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms possible. Low: 40

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures falling throughout the day. High: 38

 

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Discussion:

Winter and spring continue to clash into the first weekend of March. A mild and fair weather Friday will bring a tranquil end to the work week. Saturday will be even warmer thanks to southerly flow across mid-Missouri but take the umbrella with you for any Saturday night plans as a cold front passing through the Midwest will introduce the chance for showers and maybe even a thunderstorm before midnight. Clouds will hang around Sunday morning as temperatures fall throughout the day behind the aforementioned cold front. Total rainfall accumulations for this system is minimal with a trace to 0.1" expected by the end of the forecast period Sunday evening.

-Bongard

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Forecasters: VanUnnik, Bongard

Date Issued: 03/04/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

The 12Z run of NAM40 was utilized for this forecast. While both the NAM40 and GFS20 reached a consensus on placement of the low pressure system and general atmospheric flow, the GFS20 had more accurate temperatures when compared to the observed from Sanborn Field this morning. However, technical issues caused us to choose the NAM over GFS. The focus of this forecast is going to be the low pressure system making way to mid-Missouri on Saturday night, bringing with it a cold front and showers. 

The ridge axis is stationed over Missouri on Friday afternoon, along with a southwesterly wind flow, leading to fair weather and warm temperatures. Beginning Saturday afternoon, and leading into the night, the jet stream makes way into mid-Missouri, along with divergence aloft. During the transition from ridge to trough on Saturday night, a shortwave trough finds its way to take hold of flow for a few hours. 

A weak area of circulation at 500mb finds its way into Missouri on Friday night. Yet stronger circulation associated with the shortwave takes hold on Saturday night, before the system pushes northeast. The low pressure system over western CONUS slowly makes its way towards the Midwest, but will not be impactful this weekend.

Saturday afternoon, moisture is evident at 700mb, in the form of a comma cloud associated with a low pressure system. This low pressure system is going to cause a cold front to enter the region Saturday night. With moisture present, and lifting from the front, showers are expected, along with possible thunderstorms. Accumulations are expected to be minimal at around 0.1". The front is going to cool off our weather; as Friday and Saturday are much warmer than Sunday.

The LLJ is stationed above Missouri from early Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. WAA takes place at the surface Friday morning into Saturday morning, leading to the warmer temperatures. At the surface, the wind shift due to the cold front is evident on Sunday at 06Z, shifting from southwesterly to northwesterly.

 -VanUnnik