Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night: Overcast, rain. Low: 35

Thursday: Overcast, rain. High: 44

Thursday Night: Overcast, drizzle. Low: 36

Friday: Clouds decreasing, sun in the afternoon. High: 58

Friday Night: Clear, windy. Low: 35

 

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Discussion:

Do not put those umbrellas away just yet! Rainy conditions should stick around for the rest of the evening into the overnight hours. Temperatures will also continue to drop into the middle 30s for low temperatures overnight. If you wake up tomorrow morning and see some snowflakes flying, do not be alarmed, as any snowflakes we see tomorrow will not accumulate as ground temperatures will be way too warm. Thursday will be much like today, with rainy and colder conditions. It is not until Friday that the low pressure system finally moves away, taking the moisture with it. Meaning sunshine returns and temperatures rise into the upper 50s for highs.

- Meyer

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Forecasters: Heienickle, Meyer, Orr

Date Issued: 3/23/2022 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

The GFS and the NAM were extremely similar in their surface model outputs. In addition to accurate forecasted temperature for Wednesday afternoon, both models displayed the low pressure system at the surface over the Midwest. We led with the NAM model, but used soundings from the GFS to aid and supplement the forecast. Duration of the current precipitation and the potential for winter weather Thursday morning were of main focus for this forecast.

Wednesday afternoon Missouri sits in the axis of a deep trough displayed at the 250-mb level. This trough extends over Oklahoma, Iowa, and Illinois. The trough is accompanied with a strong jet streak on the right side. Jet streak values reach 120-kts winds coming out of the southwest. The jet streak present to the east of Missouri ultimately weakens the trough and causes it to flatten out over Thursday. A low pressure system remains over the Great Lakes region bringing in winds from the northwest. The lack of divergence at 250mb reveals there will be little surface convergence. After the low pressure system moves east, Missouri sees the greatest impact by a ridge present at 250mb over the western CONUS.

Strong circulation is seen over the Midwest at 500mb. This lift present Wednesday night to Thursday is an important component to the continued rainfall. Circulation moves east Thursday night. More circulations moves from the northwest Thursday night for a brief time. By 09Z Friday, Columbia lacks vorticity giving way to decreased chances of precipitation.

The rain currently present in Columbia is largely due to the increase of moisture displayed at 700mb. The increased values of relative humidity continue to be present throughout the day Thursday into overnight hours. The saturation in the atmosphere promotes the cloudy conditions that will be seen over the next 24 hours. The likelihood of continued drizzle during this time is high.

At 850mb, temperatures can be expected to drop due to a large flux of cold air with northerly winds at 20 kts. As the low pressure system remains over the Great Lakes, winds circulate around the Midwest cyclonically. North-northwesterly winds continue throughout the forecast period. The strongest values over Columbia can be seen Friday night into Saturday when winds reach up to 50 kts.

The low pressure system over the Great Lakes largely influences the weather seen over Columbia. At the surface, weak westerly winds dominate the next two days. Missouri sees a slight influence from cold air advection beginning Friday night; encouraging a drop in surface temperatures. Winds at the surface shift to the northwest at 15kts Friday night into Saturday. During this time, one can expect windy conditions in Columbia.

Soundings for KCOU show saturation present from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday night. The potential for snow is of interest due to the decreasing temperatures as a result of the cold front moving through the area. The temperature at the surface will not reach below freezing; however, Thursday morning the surface temperature drops to 35F. Due to below freezing temperatures in the upper atmosphere, a slight wintry mix or a few flurries can be expected for a brief amount of time. Because the ground temperatures will remain above freezing, there will be no snow accumulation. Rain will become the dominate precipitation type as the temperature increases beginning mid-morning Thursday. Columbia will slowly see sun Friday, due to decreasing clouds and saturation in the atmosphere. Precipitation values over Wednesday and Thursday will be around 0.1 inches.


- Heienickle