Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 78

 

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 39

 

Thursday: Sunny. High: 56 

 

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 38

 

Friday: Sunny. Clouds developing by late evening. High: 66

 

   

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Discussion:

Another day of warm, spring-like temperatures are in store for us today. In fact, we will be so warm that we may hit or break a record high for March 2^nd! The record high for March 2^nd was set in 1992 at 78 degrees, and that is what we have forecasted for today. Record breaking temperatures will not be sticking around for long: a cold front will be moving through mid-Missouri this evening. No rain will be associated with this cold front, just an increase in cloud cover. Even though temperatures will drop nearly 20 degrees between today and tomorrow, temperatures will still remain above average throughout the rest of the week with another warm up bringing us into the weekend.

 

-Kobielusz

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Forecasters: Kobielusz, Macko, Bongard
Date Issued: 3/2/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

With no precipitation expected until the weekend, high and low temperatures through Friday were the main focus for this forecast. The NAM was running significantly colder than what was observed earlier Wednesday morning. The GFS, on the other hand, was only slightly warmer than the morning-time observations. Furthermore, the GFS modeled an area of low pressure over Nebraska with greater accuracy. The GFS20 06Z run was ultimately chosen as the deterministic model, but the 13Z run of the HRRR was also utilized to assess the timing of a cold frontal passage later Wednesday evening. 

Mid-Missouri lacks jetstream influence throughout the majority of the forecast period as the polar jet hovers just north of the state while the subtropical jet dips south of Arkansas. However, by 00Z Friday, a small portion of the polar jet pushes south into northern Missouri. Similarly, at the same time, the subtropical jet begins to sneak northward into southeastern Missouri. These two jets then travel side-by-side through the end of the forecast period, but do not seem to have a great impact on the state of the atmosphere. This near-merging of the two jets will result in westerly winds over central Missouri instead of the northwesterly winds previously observed.No increase in upper-level divergence is to be expected with this near-merging of the jetstreams as there would be if jet coupling occurred. 

At 500 mb, an upper-level ridge is seen over the Central Great Basin region mid-day on Wednesday. It will not be until late Friday when the ridge pushes into the Central Plains. Just to the west of the ridge, a shortwave trough drapes itself just north of the NE-IA-MO border. This shortwave will generate vorticity late Friday afternoon, with vorticity being most enhanced southwest of the shortwave.

Central Missouri lacks moisture in the upper-levels throughout the forecast period. Although the vorticity mentioned above moves into Missouri late Friday, the lack of forcing and moisture renders it of little value. While some increased moisture is expected at 850-mb late Friday, it is not of great significance considering this level is still distant from saturation and there is no quality moisture depth. 

A low-level jet travels eastward through the afternoon hours on Wednesday. By the overnight hours, mid-Missouri will lose grasp of the strong, westerly winds associated with the LLJ.  Late Thursday evening, another LLJ develops over the central Rockies. As it heads into Missouri on Friday morning, southerly winds at this level will begin to steadily increase, bringing more moisture into the state at the 850-mb level. However, significant moisture will not be pulled into central Missouri until after 06Z on Saturday. 

Surface level analysis suggests that a cold front will move through the region later on Wednesday. The GFS modeled the passage occurring anywhere between 00Z and 03Z on Thursday. To narrow this time frame further, HRRR analysis was utilized. This analysis led to the belief that the frontal passage will occur just after 00Z but before 01Z on Thursday as winds develop a strong northerly component around this time, bringing in cooler air. Due to the lack of moisture and forcing, no precipitation is expected with the passage of this front.

GFS soundings exhibited the previously mentioned lack of moisture further. Come Friday evening, a developing moist layer is evident in the upper-levels of the atmosphere in preparation for the possible precipitation event on Saturday. Since a significant dry layer exists on Friday, it is unlikely for precipitation to occur before midnight.

- Macko