Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night:  Cloudy with a slight chance for showers. Low: 45

 

Tuesday: Decreasing clouds. High: 65

Tuesday Night: Few clouds. Low: 46

 

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 72

 

Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 49

 

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Discussion:

 It appears that spring has finally arrived and it has brought with it warm, pleasant conditions. A low-pressure system will move eastward and to the south of Missouri on Monday night. There is a chance for an isolated shower as this system passes with trace amounts of precipitation expected. Once the showers and clouds have moved over, there will be plenty of sunshine during the first half of the week. Temperatures will remain pleasantly warm as they reach into the upper-60s and lower-70s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Nighttime temperatures will not be terribly cold as they dip into the mid- to upper-40s. The next few days would be the perfect time to go outside and enjoy the nice weather while it lasts.

- Millsap

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Forecasters: McMullen, Millsap, Travis

Date Issued: 3/14/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

For this forecast, multiple models were utilized. The GFS and the NAM were not in agreement regarding current surface temperatures, with the GFS running several degrees cooler than the observed temperatures and the NAM being spot on. However, the GFS had a better handling on the LPS over the Southern Plains. Therefore, both the GFS and NAM were used for upper-level air analysis and soundings. The RAP and HRRR were also applied to forecast the possible precipitation Monday night.

 

The problem of the forecast period, from Monday night through Wednesday night, are the above average temperatures and the chance for precipitation tonight. 

The main instigator for this forecast can be seen beginning at the 250-mb plot of heights, winds, and divergence. A LPS is currently located over the Southern Plains and will be tracking around Missouri's southern border. It will traverse SE through Kansas until 12Z Tuesday, when it begins to move eastward across Arkansas, eventually migrating NE through the SE CONUS and beyond by 12Z Wednesday. Mid-Missouri will see some spotty areas of upper-level divergence Monday night and Tuesday morning, possibly contributing to the chance for showers Monday night.

While analyzing the previously-mentioned LPS at the 500-mb plot of heights and vorticity, it can be seen that it follows relatively the same path. Some weak and spotty areas of circulation from the northern tip of the LPS will clip Columbia Monday night, which also will add to the chance for showers that night. Most of the circulation swirling around the LPS will remain south of Missouri for Monday night, covering eastern TX, OK, AR, and LA. After the LPS passes to the east, no vorticity will cross Columbia for the rest of the forecast period. 

On the 700-mb plot of heights and relative humidity, a small band of moisture passes through central MO Monday afternoon. However, after that moisture, Mid-Missouri will remain dry at 700 mb for the remainder of the forecast period. The moisture associated with the LPS stays SE of Columbia during its passage.

Southwesterly winds dominate the lower-Mississippi Valley on Monday on the 850-mb plot of heights, winds, and temperature. These winds, associated with a LLJ, have helped to keep Columbia's temperatures above average. Winds will shift to the WSW with the passage of the LPS through AR about 12Z Tuesday, but will return to SW/SSW by 6Z Wednesday. Looking the plot of MSLP and 1000-500-mb thickness, the previously-mentioned LPS tracks slightly further south than in the upper levels, closer the Gulf Coast. Mid-Missouri will see weak SW/SSW for the rest of the forecast period, following the crossing of the LPS through Arkansas Monday Night.

GFS and NAM soundings were utilized for forecasting sky conditions. There is saturation at the lower levels Monday night, suggesting clouds and possible showers. Low CAPE values indicate that no severe weather is expected. The RAP and HRRR were also examined to further pinpoint the possibility of showers Monday night, however they showed very spotty showers, making it difficult to be certain of precipitation Monday night. Soundings also indicated little to no saturation for the rest of the forecast period, forecasting only some clouds through Wednesday Night. Trace amounts of QPF are expected for the rest of the forecast period. 

 

Future forecasters should look to the upper-level trough developing over the western CONUS on Thursday.

-McMullen