Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Monday: Cloudy with scattered rain. High: 63
Monday Night: Cloudy with rain. Low: 49
Tuesday: Cloudy with an afternoon chance for thunderstorms. High: 67
Tuesday Night: Cloudy with rain. Low: 45
Wednesday: Becoming Clear. High: 63
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Discussion:
After a calm weekend, Mid-Missouri woke up to rainy and foggy conditions. The fog will move out of the area around sunrise on Monday as rain showers will be scattered throughout the afternoon, and will pick up Monday evening into Tuesday morning ahead of a warm front passage. This warm front will bring temperatures back up into the upper 60s with humid conditions likely Tuesday afternoon before a cold frontal system passes through Tuesday night. This cold front will move through Mid-Missouri Tuesday night ending the opportunity for rain, leading to a dry, but windy rest of the work week. This northwesterly wind will keep temperatures in the lower 50s. Rain totals will come to no more than half an inch, though ponding is likely so be careful on those roads!
-Baker
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Forecasters: Baker, Gromada
Date Issued: 04/04/2022 10:00AM CDT
For this forecasting shift, the 06Z run of the NAM was chosen based on temperatures and the track of the occluded surface low in the Great Lakes Region.
The National Weather Service has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for our region for today and tonight due to the increasing rain chances. This outlook also continues into Tuesday and Wednesday for another round of precipitation and the possibility of thunderstorms.
In the upper Mississippi Valley Region, a shortwave with an occluded surface low is dominating the weather pattern for mid-Missouri and will continue to do so as the cold front located in central Iowa to northwestern Missouri pushes southeast. This cold front is expected to move through our region late this morning into the early afternoon allowing mid-Missouri to dry out, but only for a short period of time before rain returns. This cold front is expected to stall near the Missouri and Arkansas border which will then push northward as a warm front late tonight. Increased values of vorticity are seen across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas going into tonight, showing where the front may stall. Little to no vertical velocity is seen at the 700mb level indicating there will be little lift in the atmosphere so thunderstorms are not expected going into tonight. This will bring rain into our region, but the heaviest rain will remain along and south of the I-70 corridor. Precipitation amounts are expected to be no more than half an inch for tonight for our region.
Tuesday morning and early afternoon look to be fairly dry until late afternoon where the possibility of precipitation returns. A cold front coming from the northwest will pass Tuesday overnight. Higher values of vorticity at the 500mb level are seen associated with the frontal passage. There is also higher values of vertical velocity seen at 700mb which indicates there will be enough lift in the atmosphere to generate thunderstorms Tuesday night. Though thunderstorms are possible, surface based CAPE values stay under 1000 J/kg suggesting severe storms are not likely, but some storms may be strong with MU CAPE values not exceeding 1000 J/kg. Total precipitation amounts are expected to be no more than half an inch for this event. After precipitation moves through late Tuesday night and into Wednesday, it seems we will dry out before our next round of precipitation later this week. Winds will increase on Wednesday, where we could see wind gusts up to 30mph. This is due to a surface ridge that will be dominating over the Central Plains region bringing gusty northwesterly winds to central Missouri. This will allow temperatures throughout the forecast period hover around the seasonal average for the first week of April.
-Gromada
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