Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Wednesday: Increasing cloud cover throughout the day. High: 73

 

Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Low: 53

 

Thursday: Rain beginning in the morning. High: 62

 

Thursday Night: Rain. Low: 55

 

Friday: Rain ending in the morning. Thunderstorms possible during the evening. High: 73

 

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Discussion: 

The last few days of April will be on the rainy side in hopes of bringing those May flowers everyone loves talking about. Cooler temperatures will accompany the rain on Thursday with rainfall totals around an inch. Southerly winds will return on Friday, warming our temperatures once again. There will be a brief break in precipitation on Friday before thunderstorms move into the area early Friday evening.

- Macko

 

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Forecasters: Kobielusz, Macko, Bongard

Date Issued: 04/27/2022 10:00AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

The main problem for this forecast is going to be rainfall chances over the next few days and the forecast period will be from Wednesday morning to Friday evening. Both the GFS and the NAM were evaluated for a deterministic model. Both were accurately modeling high pressure to the west; however, the GFS was running much closer to the actual temperature recorded at Sanborn Field. Soundings were used to determine rainfall timing as well as any possible hazards and the NBM was consulted when deciding temperatures and rainfall totals.


Mid-Missouri currently resides under an upper-level jet streak orientated west-east across the CONUS. As an upper-level trough begins to deepen across the Northeast overnight Wednesday, mid-Missouri continues to remain in the upper-level jet streak; however, now in the right entrance region. This encourages rain development as there will be divergence aloft and convergence at the surface. This upper-level jet streak continues to move eastward and eventually by Friday, mid-Missouri will no longer be under the influence of an upper-level jet streak, but some upper-level divergence may linger.


Once again, the development of rain is encouraged by an area of circulation in mid-Missouri between 12Z and 15Z Thursday. This vorticity is associated with a shortwave ripple and moves in from Kansas. The areas of circulation are sparse and do not appear to be strong throughout the forecast period.


Moisture at the 700-mb level is null until Thursday at 03Z when moisture begins to build into mid-Missouri as winds begin carrying moisture eastward to Missouri. Moisture continues to build throughout the day Thursday and positive omega values are indicated: giving us more reason to believe that mid-Missouri will see rainfall over the forecast period.


Currently at the lower-levels, a low-level jet streak is making its way into mid-Missouri from Kansas. This low-level jet streak will eventually stake a claim on Missouri and by Thursday the jet streak is oriented south-north directly over mid-Missouri where it stays for the remainder at the forecast period. With winds at 850-mb coming from the south, abundant amounts of moisture are being pulled into mid-Missouri from the Gulf of Mexico where it will remain prevalent throughout the forecast period.


Soundings show a veering wind profile with a currently very dry atmosphere; however, the moisture profile begins to indicate the potential for some building clouds throughout the afternoon Wednesday. The moisture profile continues to deepen and by 09Z Thursday, the atmosphere is almost completely saturated except for a dry layer near the surface. Rainfall looks to begin late morning on Thursday and continues off and on through Friday morning. PWAT values remain between 1" and 1.25" throughout this time and CAPE values are low until the very end of the forecast period when they begin to increase. Total accumulations for the forecast period will be around an inch with most of the rain falling during the day on Thursday. No severe weather is expected during this forecast period; however, rumbles of thunder may be heard into the evening on Friday.


Future forecast shifts should continue to monitor the potential for severe weather Friday night.


-Kobielusz