Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 

 

Friday: Partly cloudy. Warming temperatures. High: 82

 Friday Night: Few clouds. Low: 63
 

 

 

 

Saturday: Increasing clouds. High: 80

 

 

 Saturday Night: Showers with a chance of thunderstorms after  midnight. Low:60

Sunday: Rain ending by noon. Scattered clouds in the afternoon and evening. High: 68

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

Columbia will see seasonally warm temperatures on Friday and Saturday, so enjoy it while you can! A low pressure system over the western United States makes its way east, being our weather-maker for the weekend. Saturday night into Sunday morning, there will be showers and possible thunderstorms, though they are not looking to be severe at this time. Showers are expected to total .4" and will bring cooler temperatures back on Sunday.

- VanUnnik

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Forecasters: VanUnnik, Ethridge, Bongard

Date Issued: 04/22/2022 10:00AM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

The model chosen for this analysis was the NAM. The plumes for the NAM had very good consensus, while the GFS has our high for the day much lower than expected as well as greater spread in the temperatures.

At the 250mb level the shortwave disturbance in the flow that caused the severe weather to our west on Thursday night has moved off to the east. A negatively tilted trough is deepening over the western CONUS while high pressure in the southeast CONUS helps build an amplified ridge over the eastern states. Low pressure at the center of this trough develops and pushes eastward over the Plains on Saturday. We see a lot of divergence along the leeward side of this trough building over the Dakotas before pushing north into Canada.

At 500mb we see high vorticity within the low pressure system mentioned above as it moves over the CONUS. This system picks up energy as it moves over the Plains and into the Northern Mississippi Valley. The circulation, however, begins to wind down as it moves northward on Sunday. We will still see some additional vorticity maxima throughout the day and overnight on Sunday trailing behind the low pressure system.

At 700mb the moisture we saw on Thursday begins to move east and dries out the atmosphere overhead. A new round of moisture begins to build up over the West Coast and moves eastward with that low pressure system. As the system moves east, it is fed by moisture from the Pacific as well as the Gulf of Mexico which eventually wraps into the low pressure system as it moves over the Plains and into the Mississippi Valley. This will provide ample moisture for storm systems developing in those areas.

Southerly and southwesterly winds dominate for most of this period until Sunday when the trough and accompanying low pressure system (to the north) move over Missouri, so warm temperatures can be expected on Friday and Saturday. Winds will then switch to northerly as the trough moves over Missouri and temperatures will be cooler on Sunday.

The sounding is showing some potential for elevated convection around 03Z on Sunday. We see a strong inversion at the 800mb level just above a very stable layer extending down to the surface. There is forcing present on the sounding, so if this remains in place as we head into the overnight hours on Saturday, convection is possible. Precipitation totals for this period are approximated at around 0.35in. 

 -Ethridge