Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Tuesday Night: Increasing Clouds and showers beginning late. Low: 44
Wednesday Night: Mostly Cloudy and Rain ending. Low: 50
Thursday: Partly Cloudy. Chance of storms in the evening. High: 75
Thursday Night: Cloudy and clearing. Chance of storms early. Low: 63
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Discussion:
A cool start to the week will lead to soggy conditions and warmer temperatures. As high pressure over Columbia moves out, rain and the possibility for thunderstorms is on the way. A breezy south wind will help warm surface temperatures up to the low 60s on Wednesday, but make sure to get your umbrella out as showers are expected throughout the day. Showers will tapper off early Thursday morning. Fog is possible as the sun rises and is expected to burn off by mid-morning. The warm up continues through the end of the week as temperatures will reach the low to mid 70s on Thursday. Showers begin again Thursday with the greatest chance for storms late Thursday into early Friday morning.
Forecasters: Alexander, Duff, Orr
Date Issued: 04/19/2022 5:00PM CDT
Rain, rain, and some more rain; that’s what we can look forward to in this forecast. For this period, the NAM40 was selected to be the deterministic model as it seems to have a better handle on current mid-level moisture and temperatures. The SREF also has a notably smaller range for 2 meter temperatures throughout the period. Both the GFS and NAM seem to be tracking the two upper-level lows and jet stream similarly, and have a substantial spread in their respective ensembles in regards to QPF.
Currently in the upper atmosphere, a low pressure system is trekking across British Columbia, Canada. This low pressure system is moving a ridge and subsequent trough over the CONUS and will help drive the active weather throughout the week, even though the jet stream is very weak right now. Overall, the upper atmosphere is fairly calm considering how active the mid and lower levels are. At 850mb, a low pressure system is traversing New England is leaving to the east, another low pressure system is over Alberta, Canada moving east while a high pressure system is over the Gulf of Mexico is heading towards the mid-Atlantic Coast.
Tonight we can expect to see rain. This will be thanks to the 850mb low pressure system in the northern Great Plains and the high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico fueling the low level jet. The very strong low level jet will be shoving a lot of moisture into the lower Great Plains and Midwest tonight and into tomorrow. The LLJ is expected to have streaks reaching over 75kts. At 03Z Wednesday, we expect to see the column completely saturated up to the tropopause, negative Omega values between the 700 and 300mb levels, reaching -20 values at some levels, and mid-level circulation. Due to WAA occurring overnight, around 15Z Wednesday CAPE amounts near 1000 J/kg will be present in mid-Missouri, giving us the opportunity for some isolated claps of thunder. With the exception of some occasionally intruding dry air pockets, these conditions will persist until 18Z Wednesday. After 18Z Wednesday, lingering showers will persevere until 03Z Thursday when a dry line pushes the rest of the moisture in the region to the east. Between 9Z and 15Z, calm winds and saturation near the surface could create foggy conditions. This fog will disappear before noon.
After the dry line passes Wednesday night, the sky will begin clearing for a few hours until 15Z Thursday. Around 15Z Thursday, the LLJ will begin to reform and begin sending more moisture to mid-Missouri, bringing with it more clouds. Omega values at this time range from 0 to -15 between the surface and 400mb, giving us another chance at rain. Throughout the day Thursday, WAA and some solar heating will raise CAPE levels to around 1000 J/kg. This will present Columbia and the surrounding area another isolated opportunity to hear thunder rumble around 0Z Thursday night. There are better chances for thunderstorms in northwest Missouri at this time, so if the LLJ were to shift east, we could see more widespread thunderstorms Thursday night. The last of these showers will be moving out around 06Z Friday and with it we should see some breaks in the clouds for the rest of the night.
Precipitation totals for the period are as follows: Tuesday night, .15 inch; Wednesday, .6 inch; Wednesday night, less than .1 inch; Thursday, .2 inch; Thursday night, .2 inch. These precipitation amounts can cause impacts to yards and other undeveloped areas as this rain will saturate the ground. The possibility of low lying areas flooding is low, but cannot be ruled out. Next shift should watch the LLJ reforming Wednesday for its positioning.
-Alexander
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