Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday: Cloudy. Sight chance of T-storms.n the afternoon. High:76

 

Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Chance of T-storms. Some may be severe. Low:60

 

Wednesday: Overcast. Thunderstorms ending late morning-early afternoon. Temperatures falling throughout the day. High: 64

 

Wednesday Night: Clouds clearing out. Low: 38

 

Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High: 60

 

 

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Discussion:

Much of the country is in a very spring-like pattern and Missourians need to stay weather aware! A strong low-pressure system currently marching across the country will bring with it the likelihood for thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday. The greatest chance for stronger storms here in Columbia comes Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. How quickly and to what extent the sky clears during the day Tuesday will determine how much energy is available for storms to tap into. If storms can reach severe criteria, they will mainly bring with them the threat for large hail and damaging winds (though the possibility for a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out). The threat of stronger storms persists until Wednesday during the late morning hours when a cold front will sweep through mid-Missouri. After which, the threat for severe weather will be confined to the eastern half of the state. 

-Travis

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Forecasters: Cade, Travis

Date Issued: 04/12/2022 10:00AM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

The big question for this forecast period is whether or not thunderstorms will develop, and if they will be severe over Tuesday and Wednesday. This forecast used mainly GFS, but also looked at HRRR and both NAM and GFS sounding in order to provide a better look at what is happening. 

 

Starting off at 250 mb, divergence begins to move into the Midwest Tuesday night and into Wednesday alongside a negatively tilted trough, providing the opportunity for meridional flow and active weather. 

 

Looking for vorticity at 500 mb, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot going on. There's an upper level low that moves from the Rockies into the upper Mississippi river valley, providing some vorticity to the Midwest on Thursday. 

 

Looking at RH at 700 mb, it appears that the atmosphere remains dry until Wednesday at 21 z. However, after reviewing the 315 K surface and looking at pressure and RH, it appears that the atmosphere is saturated fairly deeply from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon, until a cold front appears to pass. 

 

This cold front remains evident at the 850-mb level and at the sfc, with wind shifts indicating the front passing through Wednesday early afternoon. Looking for moisture again, moisture transport vectors show, along with a fairly strong LLJ Tuesday evening into Wednesday afternoon, that moisture will be abundant. 

 

Looking at sounding, both NAM and GFS show cold front passage, but NAM seems to lag a bit behind GFS. Both indicate passage happening around Wednesday morning/afternoon. Along with this, both show a typical loaded gun sounding for Tuesday evening. With CAPE values ranging from 2000-3000 and SRH values from 300-400, it appears that if a thunderstorm were to develop, the atmosphere would be ready to fire up and create some sort of severe weather. Wanting to investigate this further, the HRRR was consulted to look for some sort of t-storm that could come through to tap into this loaded atmosphere. Shockingly, there did not appear to be any sort of thunderstorm until Wednesday night, with only a few spotty showers/storms Tuesday evening. 

 

Investigating this further, it appears that perhaps the atmosphere will be unable to warm up enough for convection to begin on Tuesday. Looking at the GOES East satellite, it shows that the entirety of Missouri is covered in clouds, and a look outside shows the same thing. With an overcast sky, the sun will be unable to heat the ground and the atmosphere, which is one of the main things that drives convection. If skies don't clear and temperatures don't rise, then the atmosphere appears to be unable to kick up any sort of thunderstorm that would be able to fire off this loaded gun for Tuesday evening. This isn't to say that this can't happen if conditions are right, but for now, even the SPC only has mid-Missouri under a slight risk. However, as always, it is still a good idea to keep an eye on the sky and stay weather aware. 

-Cade