Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Monday: Mostly Sunny. High: 61
Monday Night: Clear. Low: 37
Wednesday: Partly Sunny. High: 71
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Discussion:
With a high pressure system dominating mid-Missouri for the first half of the week, we should expect calm and pleasant conditions during the daytime hours! However, for tonight into tomorrow, there is a Frost Advisory in effect as low temperatures will hover near freezing. If you have any outdoor plants enjoying the spring sunshine, make sure to bring them inside to protect them from the frost. Otherwise, the next few days will be full of sunshine and temperatures will be near seasonal!
-Gromada
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Forecasters: Gromada, Bongard
Date Issued: 04/25/2022 10:00AM CDT
For this forecasting shift, NAM was the model used as it has a better handling of the temperatures in correlation with Sanborn field. The NAM also handled the occlusion of the upper Great Lakes Low better than other models. The problem of the day is going to be concentrated on the low pressure system that is beginning to occlude as it tracks northwest through the Great Lakes region. As this system lifts, the cold front extending into the Ohio River Valley pushes west extending a band of rain into the Mid-South, Monday, and a few thunderstorms can not be ruled out. Another low pressure system begins to deepen as it tracks across the Central Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley today. This system couples with with weakening cold front as low pressure moves off to the east. This system is pushed east by a high pressure system building in Monday afternoon.
Evident on the 250-mb wind divergence map, an upper level jet streak oriented southwest to northeast over the Midwest progressively exits the mid Missouri area by Monday evening. This jet streak will promote thunderstorm activity in the Mid-South throughout Monday afternoon and evening. However, mid Missouri falls in the left entrance region, further indication of convergence aloft with divergence at the surface. Winds remain out of the southwest Monday afternoon at 50 kts, but will shift west as the high pressure begins to move in. This gives way to clearing throughout the afternoon Monday into Tuesday as ridging occurs.
A short wave ejects east from the Central Plains Monday evening, and could bring low level clouds back to the area. This is evident on the 500-mb vorticity map as circulation moves across mid Missouri beginning 04Z Tuesday and exiting the areas by Tuesday 14Z. However, further sounding analysis shows a very dry upper atmosphere along with no Omega values to indicate lift. Lower level clouds could return Monday evening in correlation with the shortwave; however, cold air advection and a dry atmosphere will not allow for precipitation to fall.
A lack of moisture throughout this forecast period is consistent throughout all levels. The 700-mb relative humidity map tells a similar story as the moisture and rain that mid Missouri saw Sunday evening tracks southeast ahead of the occluding cold front. Winds switch to a westerly component Monday at 13Z. However, winds have already switched to a northwest pattern over mid Missouri on the 850-mb temperature map, Monday morning. This allows for CAA. This cold, dry air will advect into the region through the day Monday clearing any cloud cover away. High pressure quickly builds in behind and takes over for the remaining of the forecast period.
A warm front begins to originate in the southern flow of the high pressure system later Wednesday. This warm front should be closely monitored by future forecasters as there is some uncertainty of how far north this warm front will track. However, temperature and moisture profile should be closely examined as it could promote activity heading into Thursday.
-Baker
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