Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Friday: Mostly cloudy, raining through the day. High: 75
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, rain decreasing through the night. Low: 65
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: 74
Saturday Night: Scattered clouds. Low: 50
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Discussion:
Looks like April isn't quite done with Missouri as thunderstorms bear down on the region over the next few days. Thursday night will see a continuation of the current trend of pleasant temperatures and overcast sky, with a increasing chances of showers as we head into Friday. A warm front will push across the Mississippi Valley Friday morning, bringing with it the chance of strong rainfall and storm development lasting throughout the day. While a cold front will pass through Saturday morning, its effects will largely go unfelt until Saturday night. Our anticipated rainfall totals through this period will likely reach 1”.
- Noblitt
Forecasters: Noblitt, Splater, Vochatzer
Date Issued: 04/28/2022 5:00PM CDT
Showers will diminish in coverage this evening as they move east before a resurgence in storms in the early morning Friday. Mid-Missouri is facing multiple rounds of rain to close out April with a low risk for severe storms in the coming days. Various models were consulted to analyze the severe threat, including the GFS20, NAM40, RAP and NBM.
An upper level ridge will pass overhead this evening with an embedded shortwave and accompanying divergence and mid-level circulation; this will contribute to the reformation of showers early tomorrow. This feature will translate east throughout the day while a negatively tilted trough approaches the Central CONUS.
Storms will be favorable early Friday as a low forms in the Central Plains and sends a warm front sweeping north through Missouri. Some storms may pose a severe threat for small hail before rain clears up into the afternoon. With the region in the warm sector of the LPS, highs on Friday are expected to rebound near seasonal averages in the 70s.
As the cold front arrives early Saturday morning, Mid-MO will face another low-end severe risk. Fropa is progged near 12Z Saturday with MUCAPE values approaching 1500 J/kg. This will support a potential for hail embedded in stronger storms, though the severe potential still remains low for our area.
The main caveat for the severe risk specifically in Mid-MO is frontal timing, with the warm front arriving early in the morning and the cold front following late night Friday. The SPC outlooks highlight higher severe potential just to our west on Day 2 and to our east on Day 3. Frontal timing in the future will thus have implications for impacts.
Conditions will clear out briefly on Sunday behind the LPS, but a disturbed jet stream looks to send multiple upper level disturbances our way next week. Rain chances will carry through nearly every day of the workweek after an already soggy end to April.
-Splater
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