Tuesday, April 26, 2022

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 


Tuesday Night:
Mostly Clear. Low: 41

 


Wednesday:
Partly Cloudy. High: 73

 


Wednesday Night:
Cloudy. Rain starting around midnight. Low: 53
 


Thursday:
Overcast. Showers with a few rumbles of thunder. High: 60

 


Thursday Night
: Cloudy and rainy. Low: 55

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion: 

April showers had better bring May flowers, because we are seeing a lot of rain this month! So far this month, Columbia has picked up almost 3 inches of rain with another .5 inch expected through Friday morning. Tonight will be warmer than last night as we start getting a light breeze from the south. Wednesday will warm up nicely, then in the late afternoon, clouds will begin moving into the region setting us up for rain Wednesday night. Rain is expected to begin Wednesday night around or after midnight and continue off and on until the weekend. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Thursday, but severe weather is not expected at this time. 

-Alexander


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Forecasters: Alexander, Duff, Orr

Date Issued: 04/26/2022 5:00PM CDT


Technical Discussion:

Sunny and seasonably cool conditions won’t last forever. A warmup and wetter conditions are expected for the end of the week. Therefore, the focus of this forecast is on the potential for rain from Wednesday night into Thursday. The GFS had a better handling of surface temperatures as well as the placement of the surface high pressure system to the west, so it was the model of choice.

Tuesday night into Wednesday night will be warmer but remain calm. A ridge of high pressure moves to the east, and it is not until Wednesday night when a more active pattern begins. Later Wednesday night, a trough over New England and an associated jet streak at 250mb sits to the east of Missouri. The CWA is positioned in the right entrance region of the streak, which will help to encourage rain development. A positively tilted trough moves in behind the ridge and leaves Mid-Missouri in between the right entrance region of a jet streak to the east and the left exit region of an approaching streak.

Farther down at the 500mb level the flow is semi-zonal as the trough to the east moves away. Yet, circulation associated with a shortwave ripple will aid in the development of rain around 09Z Thursday. Spotty vorticity continues to increase as a trough to the west moves towards the Mid-Mississippi River Valley.

The mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain dry until later Wednesday night when a pool of moisture settles over the region. The atmosphere remains moist at the 700-mb level through early Friday morning. At 850mb the flow becomes southerly early Wednesday, which will help to bring warmer temperatures and more moisture into the region as a result of the low-level jet.

At the surface, winds will switch from northerly to southerly Tuesday night. The lack of cloud cover and southerly winds will help temperatures warm up to be more seasonable for Wednesday and Thursday. The threat of severe weather and thunderstorms is low for this forecast. Soundings indicate little CAPE and lift until early Friday morning, but the profile is more indicative of heavy rain rather than severe weather. Precipitation totals by Friday morning are expected to be just under ½ inch. Future forecasters should keep an idea on rain totals and the potential for flooding. 

-Duff

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