Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Friday: Rain ending in the evening. High: 42

Friday Night: Clouds clearing, frosty conditions. Low: 28

Saturday: Sunny. High: 55

 

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 40

Sunday: A few clouds in the afternoon. High: 74

 

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Discussion:

We've got some variable weather ahead of us this weekend. Rain and cold temperatures will stick around Friday, due to a low pressure system over the Great Lakes that will bring northerly winds and moisture to Missouri. After this clears out to our east on Saturday, and winds slowly shift to southerly throughout the weekend, we will see a steady increase in temperatures. Sunday will be our warmest day in quite a while, with temperatures reaching the mid-70s.

- VanUnnik 

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Forecasters: VanUnnik, Ethridge, Travis

Date Issued: 04/08/2022 10:00AM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

The NAM was the model of choice for this forecast. It had a better handle on the low pressure systems over the Great Lakes region as well as a Colorado low headed east toward Missouri. The NAM also is forecasting more accurate current temperatures, and since the main problem for this forecast period will be freezing temperatures overnight Friday, this cemented the decision to use the NAM.

At 250hPa, a deep long-wave trough is situated over the Midwest with an amplified ridge settling in over Missouri on Saturday. The upper-level low situated over the great lakes remains semi-stationary, causing the amplification of the ridge moving over the region. Columbia, Missouri will be returning to more zonal flow through Sunday until a more shallow trough moves over the Great Plains on Sunday night.

Circulation at 500hPa will increase as the back of the trough moves across Missouri on Saturday, but vorticity will be less likely through the remainder of the period.

Moisture is present at 750hPa from Missouri through the Great Lakes region on Friday, but will move out of Missouri on Saturday. Clear skies and southerly winds will bring dry air and warmer temperatures to the region. Very few clouds will be likely until the evening on Sunday.

At 850hPa, we see cold air over Great Plains persisting until Saturday evening. After the winds shift to southerly, a large increase in warm air will move up into Missouri as that amplified ridge settles in.

The surface map shows the low pressure over the Great Lakes moving slowly to our Northeast. Calm conditions move in for the remainder of the period. However, severe weather is headed our direction and an active week is in the forecast.

- Ethridge