Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night: Clearing, windy. Low: 33

Thursday: Sunny, windy. High: 60 

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 43

Friday: Partly cloudy. High: 65

Friday Night:  Partly cloudy. Low: 40 

 

 

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Discussion:

Mid-week blues! Cold and rainy conditions were in Columbia Wednesday. The potential for rain will end by 6pm tonight. As the cold front pushes south through Missouri, temperatures will continue to drop. Temperatures at the surface will near freezing tonight. Watch for frost: plan to cover or bring inside any outdoor plants. Dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the week. Strong southerly winds, with gusts as high as 15 mph, and minimal cloud cover will increase surface temperatures Thursday. Cloud cover will return Friday, but dry, southwesterly winds will keep the potential for rain in the afternoon very low. 

- Heienickle

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Forecasters: Meyer, Heienickle, Orr

Date Issued: 04/13/2022 5:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

As the thunderstorm chances end, the attention for the forecast period turns to the return of cooler weather for April. Models already incorrectly displayed the cooling temperatures, which are still running warmer than the 21Z temperature observed at Sanborn field. Despite this, the NAM was closer in its temperatures, so it has been selected over the GFS.

Missouri is currently at the exit region of a large trough centered over the northern United States at the 250-mb level. This trough continues to move eastward as the core of the trough moves into the Great Lakes region. Unlike the troughs seen in past weeks, this one does not dig down in meridional flow. Thus, once the trough passes by after Wednesday night, Missouri sits under a zonal flow pattern until the end of the forecast period. The Jet Stream with an associated streak is directed over Missouri with westerly flow through the rest of the period.

Higher vorticity values are located over Missouri until they move out after 03Z Thursday as per 500-mb analysis. Missouri remains under a belt of stronger circulations associated with the jet streak mentioned above, but not as high as on Thursday.

The higher RH value connected with Thursday's cloud cover moves away by 00Z Thursday, suggesting an end to the cloud cover around that time. Afterward, another quick pass of higher RH values moves over central Missouri between 15Z and 18Z Friday, suggesting the return of cloud cover to the region.

Soundings from the NAM at 15Z to 18Z on Friday show a fairly saturated atmosphere above 700mb, but below that a substantial dry later. Dewpoint depressions at the surface is 12 degrees. Therefore, although cloud cover can be expected, any chances for rain look slim as it's just too dry to form any.

At the 850-mb level, the winds briefly turn northwesterly until 15Z Thursday when they veer to the southwest, where they remain until the end of the forecasting period. Therefore, despite the passage of a cold front Wednesday afternoon, the temperatures are not expected to get all that cold for April. There is some shifting of the winds to the northwest by 12Z Saturday suggesting the passage of a cold front right at the end of the forecast shift, so future forecasters should pay attention to this feature.

The lack of a significant cooldown evidenced at the 850-mb level is reinforced at the surface with the absence of any CAA or WAA through the forecast period. Thus, although temperatures will be cooler than the climatological average for April, they will not be overly cold for the holiday weekend.

- Meyer