Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

           

Tuesday: Sunny. High: 63
 

Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 41

 

Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 73

 

Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Showers beginning close to midnight. Low: 53
 

Thursday: Cloudy. Showers with a few rumbles of thunder. High: 62

 

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Discussion: 

If you're a fan of sun and mild temperatures, you'll love the weather for the next few days. A high-pressure system parked over the Midwest will make its way east causing mid-Missouri winds to turn out of the south. This will allow warmer temperatures to invade Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. High pressure will also keep the sky mostly sunny Tuesday and early Wednesday. Clouds return to the region Wednesday afternoon as the sky will become overcast by Wednesday night. Rain is likely after midnight and will stick around for Thursday morning then become scattered in the afternoon.

 

-Travis

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Forecasters: Cade, Travis

Date Issued: 04/26/2022 10:00AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Spring like weather is expected this week with both sunshine and showers in the forecast. The main problem for this forecast period is the rain moving in on Thursday. GFS was the main model used for this forecast as it seemed to have a better handle on the upper level low over the northern plains. 

As previously mentions, an upper level low over the northers plains region sort of dominates the flow for this forecast period at the 250-mb level. This brings the Midwest under a trough Wednesday into Thursday. Divergence at this level seems to be spotty Wednesday at 12z, and really shines out Thursday 12-15z. 

This meridional flow continues to dominate at the 500-mb level as well. Tuesday and Wednesday don't seem to have much going on in terms of vorticity, but Thursday at around 15z seems to have quite a bit of vorticity over Missouri. This, along with upper level divergence and meridional flow, leads to the suspicion that precipitation could be in the forecast

So, looking for moisture in the mid-levels, the atmosphere seems to be pretty dry Tuesday and Wednesday, with some moisture starting to build in Wednesday evening. Thursday seems to have abundant moisture, again adding to the thought that rain is possible. Along with this, there appears to be a fair amount of vertical velocity over Missouri Thursday at the 700-mb level. 

 
Looking for moisture closer to the surface, there appears to be an LLJ that forms Wednesday evening into Thursday, pumping moisture into the Midwest. This is backed up by moisture transport vectors showing that the atmosphere at this level should be fully saturated Thursday. Along with this, winds out of the north at this level and at the surface suggest cooler temperatures for Tuesday, which then switch to the South, again bringing needed moisture for rain and warmer temperatures for the Midwest. Looking at soundings, it is evident that the atmosphere becomes Wednesday evening and continues into Thursday, suggesting rain. There does appear to be some CAPE associated with this storm, suggesting that a few rumbles of thunder are not out of the question.  

 

-Cade