Friday, April 8, 2022

 

        

                                                    Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

Friday Night: Clear and cold. Low: 28

Saturday: Mostly clear. High: 54


Saturday Night: Cloudy and slight chance of rain. Low: 39


Sunday: Clear. High:74

Sunday Night: Clear. Low: 48


Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

====================================================================

Discussion:  

This weekend Columbia will be getting some wavering weather in terms of temperatures, so you'll need to have your coat on standby this weekend. Due to the low pressure system drifting over Missouri starting Friday night, strong winds of 55 miles per hour to 65 miles per hour coming from the North with increasing clouds will cause concern for a chance of windy rain going into Saturday. Saturday night going into Sunday morning temperatures will begin to heat up with slow westerly winds following to give Columbia a nice warm day in the 70s.


 -Watts

 

Forecasters: Watts, McDonald, Travis

Date Issued: 04/08/2022 5:00 PM CDT


Technical Discussion: 
 

Today’s forecast concerns rain chances through the start of the weekend, as well as the rebound in temperatures expected by the beginning of next week. 

The upper atmosphere shows the chaos of spring weather in the United States, with multiple troughs and formidable jet streaks present all throughout the continent. Currently on the backside of a particularly far-reaching trough, Missouri will be under the influence of it until late Saturday night. While this means the state will likely see less active weather, the current cool, cloudy pattern will likely stay in place for at least another 24 hours. Ridging begins to build in on Sunday, but is interrupted that night by another powerful trough, one much greater in size and strength than the current. What little sunshine we see this weekend will likely be scattered away by the start of the week.

500 mb shows the trough’s large swath of vorticity remaining in Missouri until at least 12z Saturday, continuing the chance (albeit decreasing) of precipitation. Ridging on Sunday will keep the area clear of any further vorticity values, even as the trough begins to influence wind on Sunday night. The strong values of vorticity to our northwest, though, seem sure to retain their intensity by the time they arrive closer to the Midwest. 

The 700 mb map shows a very similar chain of events as 500, with our big cluster of moisture also exiting the region by 12z Saturday. This could indicate a sharp clearing of skies by Saturday morning, instead of a more gradual transition to sunshine. The gap between waves of moisture does not persist as long as it does for vorticity though, and by Sunday night it is building considerably towards Missouri from the northwest. This should translate to increasing cloud cover by Sunday night, but without much chance for rain. 

At 850 mb, Saturday’s conditions show little change from today’s with continuous temperature and wind values flowing from the northwest. Wind direction slowly shifts more southwestward throughout the day, indicating that temperature should at least be a few degrees higher at the surface than Friday. The wind shift becomes distinctly more southern overnight Saturday, with warm air shooting deep through Missouri and into Illinois from Texas/Mexico. This quickly recedes by the overnight hours of Sunday though, illustrating another sharp cool down ahead next week.

Surface data displays decreasing advection and increasing temperatures through Sunday 21z, with wind patterns mirroring the trends observed at layers above. At 21z Sunday, a low pressure system moves to the northeast from Kansas into Iowa, shifting our winds and advection accordingly. While it is tiny in size, it could bring a slight chance of rain or drizzle to our region overnight. 

GFS soundings show repetitive fluctuations between now and Saturday night, swinging back and forth between slightly wet and slightly drier conditions. Whatever amount of precipitation we observe through this time period, it will likely be isolated and noncontinuous. Interestingly, sounding patterns do not change much into Sunday afternoon, somewhat contrasting observations at higher levels that would indicate abundant sunshine. On Sunday night, severe indices like CAPE and TT begin to increase, leading into the possibility of storms to kick off next week. 

Future forecasters should closely monitor soundings and surface data to better understand the risk of thunderstorms and possible severe weather starting next week. 

 

-McDonald

 

 



No comments:

Post a Comment