Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Rain ends. Low: 48
 

 

 

Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High: 73

 

 

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. An isolated evening storm is possible. Low: 63

 

 

Friday: Partly cloudy. High: 83

 

 

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 63

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

Many had to walk to class in cold and stormy conditions today. Luckily, the next two days will be much drier. Columbia also experiences quite the warm-up over the next two days due to the passage of a warm front on Thursday. Thursday temperatures will warm up into the 70s, with an overnight low in the 60s. There is a chance for a thunderstorm along the warm front, but this is only a slight chance. Friday temperatures warm even further as winds increase out of the south gusting to 35mph, highs on Friday will be in the 80s. 

-Meyer

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Forecasters: Heienickle, Meyer, Orr

Date Issued: 04/20/2022 5:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The GFS and NAM models were both accurate in their forecasted temperature for Wednesday afternoon. The GFS though was chosen for this forecast discussion over the NAM, as it accurately modeled the current surface low-pressure system over the western United States. The greatest problem for this forecasting period is the potential for thunderstorms Thursday night.

At 250mb, the jet stream present over the central plains shifts north of Missouri Wednesday night. The jet stream, with its associated divergence, shows the greatest winds near the Great Lakes. Winds over Missouri are from the northwest at 50kts. The upper atmosphere sees a relatively zonal flow over the central United States Thursday. A deep trough strengthens over the west throughout the day, allowing for a slight ridge to impact Missouri Thursday night. With this shift to a more meridional flow, an area of divergence moves over Missouri Thursday night. This brief period of a shortwave disturbance quickly ends as Missouri sits under a ridge, with a trough staying off to the west for the remainder of the forecasted period. 

The vorticity present over the CONUS at the 500-mb level shifts to the north Wednesday night. Missouri will see little circulation Thursday until a small disturbance late Thursday night. Vorticity returns to the area, as the aforementioned meridional flow strengthens over the CONUS. As a ridge pattern becomes more defined, Friday into Friday night, no strengthened circulation is expected.

The current increased moisture leaves Missouri Thursday 09Z. Thursday will see a few clouds throughout the day. Increased levels of moisture at 700mb will return to mid-Missouri late Thursday night, though, the potential for precipitation will remain low. Columbia will remain dry until moisture returns Saturday night.

850mb shows Missouri impacted by southerly winds around 50kts Wednesday afternoon. Surface temperatures are expected to increase Thursday early morning as a warm front moves through. Winds shift northerly for a brief period overnight Thursday as a shortwave impacts Missouri. This disturbance is short-lived as southerly winds will begin to dominate again bringing warmer temperatures for the remainder of the workweek.

Warm air advection present Wednesday afternoon supports the continued convection. Cloud cover and rain are expected to continue until this evening. As the ridge moves over Columbia with its associated high-pressure system, southerly winds are seen over Missouri. Thursday and Friday will bring above seasonally average temperatures.

Soundings from GFS from the 12Z run show the atmosphere drying out after 06Z Thursday. Fog will be present early Thursday morning. A slight veering profile can be seen Thursday with southerly winds at the surface. Moisture returns to Missouri 00Z Friday with elevated CAPE values and a lifted index of -4. The potential for a thunderstorm is greatest during this time, while precipitation values are only near 0.1 inches. Friday and Saturday will see some clouds, but the potential for rain will not re-enter Columbia until this weekend late Saturday night and Sunday. 

- Heienickle