Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Tuesday Night: Overcast; rain with scattered strong thunderstorms possible. Low: 45
Wednesday: Becoming partly cloudy. High: 59
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 39
Thursday: Becoming overcast. Rain possible. High: 48
Thursday Night: Overcast and rainy. Low: 36
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Discussion:
A warmup in the beginning of this week will lead to wetter and colder conditions for the end of the week. Rain is expected late on Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will also be the cooling factor for this weeks weather. Ahead of the cold front on Tuesday is the possibility for scattered strong thunderstorms after 8pm. The main threats are large hail and strong, possibly damaging wind gusts. The rest of the week looks to be cooler and quieter, and the next chance for rain is on Thursday and Thursday night. Expect temperatures in the 50s and upper 40s for the rest of the week.
-Duff
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Forecasters: Alexander, Duff, Orr
Date Issued: 04/05/2022 5:00PM CDT
After a beautiful start of the week we will have a cold front pass through Columbia this evening bringing rain, isolated thunderstorms, and cooler temperatures. Another chance of rain presents itself later in the week, but it will be much less impactful than tonight’s precipitation. For this forecasting shift, the 12Z run of the NAM was used as its positioning of the low pressure system to our north, the driving force of the weather this week, is better than the GFS. Due to the possibility of convective storms this evening, the NAM NEST was also consulted for timing, intensity, precipitation amounts, and overall convective possibility. NBM was used to determine temperatures and assisted in determining precipitation totals.
Currently there is an upper-level low pressure system (LPS) over the northern Midwest moving south-southeast and a 250mb jet streak over middle-Great Plains moving southeast. The jet streak is positioned on the left-side of a mild trough, but as the week progresses, this streak will push the trough deeper and further south as the LPS continues in its general southeasterly direction. Over Columbia, the sky is becoming cloudier and will continue to do so throughout this evening.
As we move into the evening hours, a line of thunderstorms will move through the region at about 01Z ahead of a cold front. The impacts of this line will be heavy rain and the possibilities of hail, strong wind, and isolated weak tornadoes. Divergence aloft, a very moist atmosphere, mid-level circulation, sufficient directional and speed shear, along with CAPE values over 900 J/kg with 0 J/kg CINH work to reaffirm that these impacts are possible. At this time, the SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion for mid-Missouri. The discussion mentions that strong winds and damaging hail are the most likely severe elements of tonight’s system. It goes on to mention that the possibility of a tornado cannot be eliminated, however a thunderstorm or tornado watch will likely NOT be issued. Following the initial line of storms, the cold front will pass and rain will continue to fall until the early morning hours of Wednesday.
Wednesday morning will start off with some lingering clouds that will clear out mid-morning as the 250mb jet streak continues to move south as the trough keeps deepening. Throughout Wednesday, the surface portion of the LPS will be directly to our north, causing winds to pick up from the west to about 10-20kts. These winds will bring in mid-level moisture to mid-Missouri in the early evening but are not expected to bring any extra precipitation overnight. Overnight Wednesday, winds will slow to 5-10kts and take a slight northerly component as the upper-level LPS to our north begins to move southeast.
Thursday, the LPS will begin moving east as a ridge over the Atlantic ocean prevents it from heading any further south. As the LPS begins moving east toward the Great Lakes, moisture will wrap around it and find its way back down to Missouri Thursday afternoon; this will be our second chance at rain this week. With a moistened atmosphere, some mid-level vorticity and -1 to -3 Omega values, there could be the chance for light amounts of precipitation to occur late Thursday evening and into the overnight hours.
Precipitation total for tonight will be around .5 inch. For Thursday and Thursday night, precipitation will likely be less than .1 inch.
Next shift should watch for forcing and instability on Thursday as these products will make or break the possibility of precipitation at that time.
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