Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night: Increasing clouds and rain after 4 A.M. Low: 49

Tuesday: Morning showers with a chance for showers in the afternoon. High: 67

Tuesday Night: Rain with chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Low: 45

 

Wednesday: Becoming sunny. High: 63

 

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 41

 

 

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Discussion:

 Those in Mid-Missouri would do best to keep their umbrellas ready as wet conditions are expected for the next couple days. A warm front will move its way into the area Monday evening, carrying with it some scattered showers. The front will also bring high temperatures into the upper 60s on Tuesday as well as a chance of on-and-off showers. Low temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will remain in the mid and upper 40s. A cold front will be introduced to the area Tuesday night, pushing showers and thunderstorms ahead of it in the evening. Total rainfall during this period is estimated between 0.1 and 0.5 inches, so be careful during the commute. Once the cold front passes, the rain will clear out as the sun returns on Wednesday morning. Temperatures on Wednesday will remain mild, with highs in the lower 60s and lows in the lower 40s.

- Millsap

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Forecasters: McMullen, Millsap

Date Issued: 04/04/2022 5:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

The 12Z run of the GFS was chosen for this forecast. The GFS was mainly chosen due to its agreement with the current surface temperatures. However, both the GFS and NAM were a little wonky in the surface maps in a few areas, so that was taken into consideration during the forecast.

The problem of the day for this forecast period from Monday night to Wednesday night is the chance of showers over most of the period, but especially Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Zonal flow currently dominates much of the Midwest, as seen on the 250-mb plot of heights, winds, and divergence. Little upper-level divergence can be seen for Mid-Missouri until about 12Z Tuesday, when a short, but deep, trough over MO and to the south in combination with a slight ridge over the Northern Midwest begins to pass over the area. The trough will push divergence towards Columbia, but mainly remains in Southern Missouri and Arkansas. Another trough and LPS will form over Western Canada and will begin to travel SE towards the upper Midwest around 0Z Wednesday. This will push a jet streak and its associated divergence over Missouri, and will exit the region near the end of the forecast period.

On the 500-mb plot of heights and vorticity, an LPS is located over Michigan and the Great Lakes region. A band of circulation will move through Missouri from the SW Monday afternoon. This vorticity will mostly clear out until about 3Z Wednesday, when vorticity from the previously mentioned LPS from Canada will move through, with the peak of this circulation occuring about 18Z Wednesday. Multiple bands of circulation will cycle through Missouri from the north until the end of the forecast period. 

A band of moisture moved through Missouri Monday morning, as seen on the 700-mb plot of heights and relative humidity. This band will remain south of Columbia and traverse eastward towards the eastern CONUS, however it will briefly stretch into Mid-Missouri around 12Z Tuesday, aiding the possible showers early on Tuesday. A swathe of moisture from the previously mentioned Canadian LPS will move through Columbia from about 0Z Wednesday to 9Z Wednesday. A second band from the same LPS will travel across Missouri from about 21Z Wednesday to 1Z Thursday. Finally, a third area of moisture will begin to arrive in Columbia near the end of the forecast period. These bands of moisture will aid in the development of rain throughout the forecast period.

On the 850-mb plot of heights, winds, and temperatures, Missouri is currently experiencing northerly flow. This flow is leftover from the first LPS over the Great Lakes region. Mid-Missouri's winds will shift to the SSW by 0Z Tuesday. This southerly flow will remain until 0Z Wednesday when the second LPS shifts the winds NW for the rest of the forecast period. While the winds are fairly weak at the beginning of this week, they will begin to pick up speed starting about 9Z Tuesday and will remain strong through the forecast period. 

Looking the plot of MSLP and 1000-500 mb thickness, weak winds can bee seen across Missouri. This pattern remains even as a weak HPS moves eastward across southern IA from 21Z Monday through 0Z Tuesday. At 6Z Tuesday, winds will begin to shift southeast, then south with the incoming LPS from the northwest. At 3Z Wednesday, the winds will shift to the NW, then quickly shift back the the SW by 9Z Wednesday, possibly indicating a frontal passage. Around 18Z Wednesday, winds will pick up speed across Missouri and shift to the west. By 0Z Thursday, the winds will shift once again to the NW and remain for the rest of the forecast period. Soundings were examined to be utilized in this forecast. The most significant thing to note from these soundings was the spike in CAPE values and lift about 0Z Wednesday, indicating a chance for thunderstorms. However, with CAPE values remaining in the 200-300 range and other indexes remaining low, there is no significant chance for severe thunderstorms. QPF values are expected to be under 1/2" through Wednesday night. 

Future forecasters should look for any factors that could bring changes to the QPF values for the first part of this week. 

-McMullen