Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday: Clouds forming in the early morning, rain in the afternoon. High: 63

Friday Night: Rain ending, partly cloudy. Low: 40

Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: 56

 

Saturday Night:  Mostly cloudy. Low: 39

 

Sunday: Showers during the afternoon. High: 48

 

 

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Discussion:

Variable weather this Easter weekend with showers in the early afternoon on Friday as well as on Sunday. Saturday will be the clearest day for Easter egg hunting. Temperatures will get cooler throughout the weekend with the passage of a cold front on Friday morning, so be sure to dress warmly during Easter festivities or other outdoor activities. Precipitation accumulations of up to 0.05 in on Friday and 0.2 in on Sunday.

- Ethridge

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Forecasters: VanUnnik, Ethridge, Bongard

Date Issued: 04/14/2022 5:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

The 06Z run of GFS was utilized for this forecast. Opposed to the NAM, the GFS reached a clearer consensus with forecasted temperatures along with having a more accurate forecasted low this morning when compared to the observed low at Sanborn Field. Both the NAM and GFS mostly agreed on height contours, yet the GFS handled the placement and tracking of the low better. The problem of the day is going to be timing and accumulation of precipitation on both Friday and Sunday.

Friday morning, the polar and subtropical jets are converging together at 250mb over the western CONUS, with the polar jet stationed over Missouri. This is causing the majority of central CONUS to be captivated by a zonal flow, with mid-Missouri experiencing west-northwesterly winds for the majority of the weekend. At 00Z Sunday, the jet streams experience coupling over the four corners region.

The same zonal flow is evident at 500mb over the southern half of CONUS, with a large area of circulation dominating the flow around the Great Lakes and New England regions as the system pushes east. Vorticity associated with a shortwave trough will advect into Missouri Sunday afternoon.

A brief pocket of moisture at 700mb will bring clouds and rain to mid-Missouri on Friday morning. With rain clearing around noon, some clouds will remain on Saturday, and rain will return Sunday around noon. Very trace amounts of rain are expected on Friday, totaling less than 0.05 inches, while Sunday's rain is expected to total around 0.2 inches. Late Sunday afternoon, a cold FROPA will clear out the occurring precipitation.

At 850mb, temperatures in the mid-Missouri region will remain cool, with the highs gradually decreasing throughout the weekend.

-VanUnnik