Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night: Becoming cloudy. Low: 53
 

Thursday: Clouds, potential for rain mid-morning. High: 62

 

Thursday Night: Overcast, rain. Low: 58

 

Friday: Overcast, storms. High: 75

 

Friday Night: Overcast, storms. Low: 65

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

The Mizzou quad was filled with students Wednesday afternoon, as many took advantage of the sun and spring-like temperatures. Temperatures will see a slight decrease as Missouri experiences increased cloud cover and weak winds. A low pressure system from the east will impact the current stable conditions and increase precipitation chances overnight into Thursday. Rain can be expected for brief periods throughout the day Thursday. As instability in the atmosphere strengthens, the potential for storms on Friday and into the weekend becomes more likely. Accumulation will likely reach 0.1 inches. 

- Heienickle

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Forecasters: Meyer, Heienickle, Orr

Date Issued: 04/27/2022 5:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

Temperatures were the biggest point of difference between the NAM and the GFS, with both models running slightly cool. However, the GFS better represented the current conditions at 21Z Wednesday, so it was used for this forecast. Soundings from the GFS were also used to gauge the rainfall and convective potential over the next several days.

Most of the eastern United States was under the influence of a ridge, leading to predominantly quiet weather conditions over most of the country at 21Z Wednesday at the 250-mb level. Attention turns to a developing trough over the western United States as it slowly digs southward. Ahead of this trough, Missouri sees multiple periods of divergence aloft from 00Z Thursday through the end of the forecast period, suggesting the potential for unsettled weather closer to the surface.

This is reflected in the 500-mb vorticity map. As circulations passes overhead between 12Z Thursday and the end of the forecast period at 12Z Saturday. However, the higher values of vorticity remain well to the west with the deepening trough which only begins to eject into the Central Plains at the end of the forecast period.

Deep moisture begins to move into central Missouri after 21Z Thursday as exemplified by the higher RH values at the 700-mb level. The higher RH moves to the east after 15Z Friday and remains drier at the mid-levels until the trough fully ejects outward on Saturday.

Soundings from the GFS show a very saturated profile from 12Z Thursday until 00Z Friday, suggesting the possibility for rainfall throughout the period. There is very little in the way of CAPE, suggesting the potential for thunderstorms is low. By 15Z on Friday, CAPE values increase to around 500 j/kg then to over 1000 j/kg by 21Z Friday. This suggests the potential for a few thunderstorms during the afternoon. A generally unfavorable wind profile, along with the absence of a deep moisture layer preclude the potential for severe convection on Friday.

In the lower levels of the atmosphere, the 850-mb winds show southerly winds throughout the period, suggesting moisture return would be continuing for most of the period. The absence of any frontal boundary which would wash away the moisture at the surface supports this fact, any lifting mechanism to get thunderstorms going will stay off to the west. Future forecasters should pay attention to the trough ejection on Saturday.

-  Meyer