Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

            

Monday: Becoming sunny. High: 52

           

Monday Night: Clear. Low: 30

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, afternoon and evening showers. High: 56

 

Tuesday Night: Rain . Low: 44

Wednesday: Showers with possible thunderstorms. High: 60

 

 

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Discussion:

Winter just won't go away! The National Weather Service has issued a Freeze Warning for central Missouri overnight tonight into Tuesday morning as clear skies tonight will drop overnight low temperatures to before freezing. Budding plants will need to be covered this evening in advance of the cold night ahead. Our next weather maker approaches the area from the west-northwest Tuesday evening bringing a chance for rain overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rainfall accumulations with this system could approach up to an inch by Wednesday afternoon. The chance for thunderstorms Wednesday is moderate as the cold front approaches. Indications suggest that storms could be strong to severe and so Wednesday afternoon's weather should be monitored closely going forward.

-Bongard

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Forecasters: Gromada, Bongard

Date Issued: 04/18/2022 10:00AM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

For this forecasting shift the NAM was chosen based on the handling of the cold front passage today. This cold front passage is expected to move through during the mid-morning hours and will bring drier air as well as cooler temperatures into the mid-Missouri region for the beginning of the week.

Mid-Missouri is under a Freeze Warning for early Tuesday morning as temperatures will fall near and below freezing overnight tonight.

As mid-Missouri is under a shortwave trough, seen at 250 mb, a northwest to southeast jet streak becomes prominent over the region starting on Monday at 09Z. The shortwave trough and jet streak push east and maximum winds located in the jet streak are seen around 110 knots at 21Z Monday. Upper level divergence is not seen at this level until the end of the forecast period. 

At 500mb, a line of vorticity with lower values is seen being associated with the strong low pressure system located over the Great Lakes Region. Little relative humidity is seen over the region at the 700mb level throughout the beginning of the forecast period, but going into Wednesday, more moisture lifts into the region associated with ridging and another cold front passage. This cold front will bring an ample amount of moisture needed for heavy rainfall. At 12Z Monday, lower values of relative humidity are seen in the Middle Mississippi Valley region, but moves out by 17Z on Monday. 

Looking at the 850mb temperature map for Monday at 12Z, winds are coming out of the north northwest at about 30 knots, and throughout the day, become more westerly at about 30 knots as well with near freezing temperatures creeping in with it as we head into the overnight hours. The LLJ has a strong presence on Tuesday going into Wednesday which is bringing an ample amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico all the way up to Canada. Winds associated with the LLJ are seen at around 50 knots. 

Rainfall accumulations through Wednesday afternoon look to be in the range of 0.75 to 1 inch possible with this system. As the period comes to a close Wednesday afternoon the chance for thunderstorms is possible as the front approaches the region. Total total values of 52 suggest the possibility of severe weather at that time. Future forecasters should monitor the severe weather potential and make changes to the forecast as new information becomes available.

 - Gromada, Bongard