Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

            

Friday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 39

            

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High: 58

         

  Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 39

 

    
            

Sunday:  Mostly cloudy. High: 50

 

            

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a slight chance of showers. Low:37

 

 

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Discussion:

Our current pattern of average temperatures and cloudiness will continue this weekend, with a cold front buffering any chances of significantly warming up. Clouds will build in to a greater degree Sunday night, correlating with a slight to moderate chance of showers.

- McDonald

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Forecasters: McDonald

Date Issued: 04/15/2022 5:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

The GFS was used for today's forecast, as current conditions and temperatures were better initialized under it. 

Flow is firmly zonal at 250 mb, with Missouri directly underneath the strongest segments of the jet stream. This flow continues until 21z Sunday, with jet streaks reaching wind speeds as high as 140 knots as they flow over the state. While such strong jet streaks would usually allow for an increased chance of active weather, the steady zonal flow appears to counteract any troughs or ridging in the immediate future. After 21z Sunday, the jet stream shifts north as a strong ridge begins to develop over the mountain west into Monday.

The zonal flow continues at 500 mb, with only very isolated areas of vorticity entering Missouri through Sunday 18z. These areas of vorticity only barely register on the charts, dampening the chances of any activity resulting from them. At Sunday 21z, a shallow trough begins to take shape over Missouri, positively tilting as a substantial amount of vorticity enters the state. The trough quickly dissipates as it moves poleward after exiting the state at Monday 0z, but could serve to bring some scattered bouts of rain late Sunday night. 

700 mb displays more quietness over the next 36 hours, with omega and moisture values almost entirely absent over Missouri. Moisture builds in at Sunday 12z, connecting with a large swath of humid conditions that extends to a powerful low in the Canadian Rockies. This aligns with increased vorticity at 500 mb, further raising the probability of wet weather for Sunday afternoon and evening. Omega values remain low throughout this time, however. 

850 mb shows much more variability than the upper levels, with wind flow and temperatures changing throughout the next 72 hours. Southwest flow persists for the remainder of Friday afternoon, but will quickly shift northward as a cold front sweeps through in the late hours of the night. While it's not strong enough to drastically reduce temperatures, It will prevent further warming for the rest of the weekend. Flow then makes a final shift to the southeast at Sunday 12z, with the effects of the strengthening trough to the northwest extending their influence to the midwest. 

Surface analysis displays inactive weather through Sunday, with pressure and thickness values failing to create any notable advection. Atmospheric flow mirrors that of 850 mb, with frontal passage evident Friday night and southeasterly flow beginning Sunday afternoon. 

GFS soundings show a fairly dry atmosphere through Sunday morning, though still capable of containing some trace moisture. Soundings better translate into precipitation Sunday at 12z, with moisture more readily present into later that night. 

Future forecasters should be wary of the strengthening trough in the Canadian Rockies Sunday night, which could increase the likelihood of storms in Missouri if it moves further southeast.

-McDonald