Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: 80
Sunday: Showers lingering until early afternoon, mostly cloudy thereafter. High: 65
Sunday Night: Clouds decreasing. Low: 48
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Discussion:
Very
warm conditions will continue for at least the next 24 hours, as
southerly winds continue to advect warm air into mid-Missouri from high
pressure to our southeast. A cut off low over the rockies, however, will
traverse northeastward over the great plains on Saturday, bringing the
chance for widespread showers and storms tomorrow night. A cold front
will follow suit Sunday morning, sending our high temperatures back into
seasonal territory in the middle 60s.
Forecasters: McDonald, Travis, Watts
Date Issued: 04/22/2022 4:00PM CDT
NAM was used for this forecast because the temperatures were slightly less accurate with GFS followed by the precipitation.
At 250mb a strong trough followed by a low-pressure system coming from the southwest Saturday morning will drift over the Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley along with strong winds of 50-70 knots. The jet streak will be plunging the system along with divergence Sunday morning causing low pressure system to circulate at its highest point Sunday evening.
At 500mb vorticity will start to drift over the Midwest Sunday morning but won’t be its strongest until Sunday evening causing concern for something to happen with temperatures warming up into the high 70s and low 80s. Because of the circulation that’s going to occur Sunday evening, winds won’t be there strongest until the low-pressure system drifts over the Midwest.
The Mississippi Valley will receive a moderate amount of relative humidity at 700mb coming from the northwest Sunday morning meaning moisture will be a factor in this forecast towards the back end. As the low-pressure system moves east towards the Gulf of Mexico, Missouri has positive vertical velocity occurring with rising motion followed by moisture meaning the anticipated circulated system with moisture will confirm the possibility of storm systems developing this weekend.
Strong southerly winds control most of this forecast along with along with the anticipated circulated low-pressure system that’ll fully develop Sunday, which means because we are approaching May temperatures are going to start rising in the Midwest meaning moisture is going to be a factor in the coming weeks.
Looking at the sounding, elevated convection is a possibility around 0Z Sunday along with forcing being present. Precipitation totals for this period are roughly going to be around .38in.
-Watts
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