Thursday, April 14, 2022

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field




Thursday Night: 
Clear. Low: 43

Friday:
Clouds forming in the early morning, rain in the afternoon. High: 63


Friday Night:
Clouds clearing through the night. Low: 40



Saturday:
Partly cloudy. High: 56

 


Saturday Night:
  Mostly cloudy. Low: 39

 

 

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Discussion:

Better keep your umbrellas handy as this Easter weekend is looking to be a bit wet. Friday will see a cold front slowly push its way southeast across Missouri bringing with it the chance of storm development and rain through the evening, producing an estimated one-tenth of an inch of rain. Cooler air will settle into our region following the front, which will see lingering clouds in the sky and our high temperatures hover near 60 as we head into Easter Sunday. Egg hunters should keep an eye on the sky and the ground as we move through the weekend.

- Noblitt

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Forecasters: Noblitt, Splater, Vochatzer

Date Issued: 04/14/2022 5:00PM CDT


Technical Discussion: 
 

Wet and seasonably cool conditions will persist this weekend, potentially leading to a soggy Easter Sunday. Both the NAM and GFS were consulted due to various dynamics affecting the forecast. A slow moving front will arrive Friday afternoon and settle nearly right along I-70 leading to discontinuities in wind fields between the models and their precipitation output.


Currently an upper level low can be seen at 250 mb over the Great Lakes, though zonal flow has already returned over Missouri. This is intensified by a jet streak (up to 120 kts) over the region which will drive active conditions for the weekend ahead. Slight ridging will then build on Saturday night as the jet streak exits to the east.


An upper level shortwave disturbance will push through central Missouri early Friday, potentially increasing POPs later in the day. This will force a quasi-stationary front at the surface to meander in from the north (as mentioned previously, this is influencing model output). Additionally, a LLJ to the southwest at 850 mb will advect moisture into the region, with model differences in the jet’s intensity.


Turning to soundings, the NAM is drier throughout much of the low levels Friday morning due to more northerly flow, which would indicate a later onset of precipitation. However, a more robust LLJ in the NAM’s 850 mb plot will introduce more moisture, with both the NAM and GFS soundings moistening from 15Z-21Z Friday. Thus, precipitation will be likely in the afternoon and early evening with forcing supplied from the front.


As this front finally sags southward Saturday morning, cool conditions will follow suit this weekend. Cloud cover will linger these next few days, likely keeping temperatures below seasonal averages on Easter weekend. Sunday faces a potential for more rain, though dry conditions at the surface may inhibit this with soundings depicting a dewpoint depression near 20F early in the day. Sunrise services might manage to remain dry, but afternoon egg hunting could get soggy on Sunday.

 
-Splater

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