Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

        

     

Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 50

 

 

Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 82

 

 

 

Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 56

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High: 80

 

 

 

Thursday Night: Mostly Clear. Low 46

 

 

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Discussion:    

The stretch of dry and warm weather continues through the next couple of days. Calm weather and a light southerly wind will help the warm up Wednesday into the low 80s. Clouds will be on the increase, however, during the day Wednesday with partly cloudy conditions expected. Thursday will be very similar to Wednesday in regards to temperatures except more sunshine is anticipated. Say goodbye to mornings in the 50s this week as a colder morning on Friday will dip temperatures into the 40s.

 

-Simmons

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Forecasters: Meier, Macko, Simmons

Date Issued: 10/04/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

For this forecast period, a blend of the NAM12 and GFS20 models were used to pinpoint certain features associated with a long and shortwave trough on our heels. GFS and NAM soundings were also used for temperature forecasting. As we shift our focus into the next couple of days, we will watch an upper-level trough to our northwest and how it will affect moisture aloft and temperatures.

Currently, Mid-Missouri is under a ridge with a strong low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic and a low situated up in the Dakotas. The blocking pattern that the central CONUS has been experiencing will begin to break down over the next couple of days as the low off the Eastern Seaboard slides away. This will make way for the shortwave trough to sink down into the upper-Midwest. It is expected to reach our area around 2100Z on Wednesday before carrying off east. Our attention next turns to a long-wave trough dropping down from Canada through the Great Lakes Region Thursday night into Friday.

At the mid-levels, analysis showed weak vorticity associated with the shortwave trough. However, strong vorticity was evident in northern Missouri and in Iowa. Consequently, 700-mb analysis shows moisture and higher relative humidity values starting around 1200Z for our area indicating some clouds forming during the day Wednesday. The moisture fades away with clearing expected overnight Wednesday. Thursday will have more sunshine as moisture doesn't appear to be very ample aloft. 

Toward the lower levels of the atmosphere, partly cloudy conditions are supported with Skew-T soundings showing some saturation throughout the day Wednesday. A cold front is apparent Thursday overnight with 850-mb moisture getting choked off around 0600Z Friday. The NAM and GFS are both in agreement that cold air advection will slowly start to invade from the north with 1000-500 mb thickness verifying just that. That is why we expect Friday morning to be colder than what we've been experiencing so far this week.

Although we don't expect any precipitation Wednesday with the clouds, the next forecast shift should monitor colder temperatures Friday and Friday night for frost potential.

-Simmons