Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

         

   

Monday: Sunny. High: 79

Monday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 49

     

  

Tuesday: Sunny. High: 79

 

 

 

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 52

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 80

 

 

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Discussion:    

A continuation of our calm, seasonable weather is in store as the week begins. Stable, comfortable highs are expected the next few afternoons, while a light jacket might be appropriate as you begin your mornings.

 

-Schneringer

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Forecasters: Samson, Schneringer, Travis

Date Issued: 10/03/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The blocked high over eastern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley projects to progress this week as the remnants of Ian are caught up in upper level flow and dragged downstream. A blend of the NAM and GFS were used for this forecast, and both have slightly different progressions of the slowly degrading high and following low pressure system, with the GFS being slightly more aggressive with its speed and amplitude. This discrepancy in the development of the low serves to inject most of the uncertainty into this forecast. 

The aforementioned low can be placed over the Montana-Alberta border via upper-level WV imagery, with a high pressure system slowly sliding southwards over the Great Lakes and into the Rust Belt. Satellite imagery also depicts a jet originating in northeast Mexico roughly tracing the Gulf Coast as it blows westward. This jet is projected to strengthen over the next few days as it and the upper low over the VA/MD coast interact. The ridge over the forecast region will follow behind as that system is pushed farther east. The surface low associated with the upper level trough will push southeast from the Dakotas and through central Iowa. At this time, little moisture is forecast for our region, so the resulting frontal passage this system brings is currently not expected to bring any precipitation. Despite that, soundings from the NAM and GFS depict moderate to ample forcing should the prognostication of moisture values change in the next few days. The quiet forecast period is represented by stable, comfortable high temperatures, but the expected cold front passage beyond our time frame will act to curb those as the week closes.

-Schneringer