Thursday, October 6, 2022

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

       

Thursday:
Partly cloudy. High: 80




Thursday Night:
Few clouds. Low: 46
 
 
 

Friday:
Mostly sunny. High: 62
 
 
 
Friday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 38
 

Saturday:
Mostly Sunny. High: 62 


 
 

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Discussion:    

Mad about the 80 degree temperatures in October? Thankfully we see a change as we round out our week. After the cold front moved through, mid-Missouri will try to enjoy one more day full of sunshine and above average temperatures before the cooler air arrives. Look for temperatures to fall in the low 50s tonight as the wind switches to the northwest, and tomorrow to not even reach the mid 60s.
 
Baker
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Forecasters: Sausen, Baker, Sallot

Date Issued: 10/06/2022 10:00 AM CDT


Technical Discussion:
 

After the frontal passage, NAM was the model of choice used for our forecast period due to its handling of the 850mb temperatures. However, NAM and GFS were both used for tracking CAA from the north moving into our area, which ultimately is going to be the problem of the day. Temperatures will be dropping approximately 20 degrees over the next twenty four hours will be the main focus of this AFD, and how fast it will affect the mid-Missouri area.

The winds and divergence at 250mb were significant in the flow of cold air from the north. As a low pressure system tracks off to the northeast, winds switch to a west-northwesterly component. This, combined with the polar jet stream shifting south, will bring cooler air from the north. This polar jet will serve as the driving mechanism for CAA in the upper levels.

Vorticity combined with a shortwave tracking eastward would be the most significant aspect of the 500mb level. Vorticity levels are significant Friday afternoon in association with the shortwave. Winds shift from a northwesterly component to a westerly component through the range of the forecast.

The 700mb-relative humidity map shows moisture entering the area around 19Z this afternoon, when compared with a sounding for this afternoon, the 700mb layer seems to be saturated, furthering the thought of clouds rolling in this afternoon. The moisture then retreats Saturday 00Z, leaving high pressure in its path. 

As the cold front has already moved through, the winds will shift from a WSW to a WNW flow throughout the day, allowing for the polar jet to retreat south. This will serve as the forcing mechanism of the cooler, drier air. This is evident on the 1000mb-500mb thickness map cross correlated with MSLP. The solonoids track due south towards mid-Missouri and arrive Friday 00Z. This will allow 850mb to cool to 0 degrees C, further indicating the cold air advection. 

 

-Sausen & Baker

 

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