Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Monday Night - Clear skies. Low: 46-50
Tuesday - Abundant sunshine. High: 74-78
Tuesday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 48-52
Wednesday - Windy. Mostly sunny. High: 78-82
Wednesday Night - Becoming cloudy. Low: 50-54
A cold front passed through our area this morning bringing much cooler temperatures than the summer-like conditions this weekend. In the next few days we will see a warm up and clear skies as winds shift out of the south ahead of a warm front. Today was windy behind the cold front, but winds will die down before they pick back up ahead of a warm front Wednesday.
Our forecast was generated by guidance from the 18Z NAM, GFS and SREF. The main focus for this forecast period is a significant warm-up into the midweek with above average temperatures expected during this time.
Cold FROPA occurred early this morning, but due to dew point temperatures in the 40s behind the front, any moisture that tried to advect into Mid-MO did not make it to the surface. A few higher clouds were associated with this passage, but the dry air behind it quickly cleared our skies. Conditions were very windy with some areas around central Missouri experiencing 30-40 MPH wind gusts this afternoon. As of 15Z, the cyclone over Lake Superior attached to this cold front has a central pressure of 994mb, where as eastern Missouri recorded a barometric pressure of 1016mb. These different isobars over a small area in the Midwest has created these windier conditions near the surface.
As the cold front pushes further east, its effects go with it. Winds will calm overnight as an anticyclone sets up shop across SW Missouri. Winds will quickly shift out of the south at the surface, but the high pressure system will allow for winds to be much more light than we saw today. Clouds will begin to advect back into Mid-MO in front of a warm front expected to approach us Wednesday. Winds are shown to veer with height in forecasted Skew-Ts on Wednesday, signifying WAA. We also expect winds to amp back up as we undergo this change.
Future forecasters should monitor the cold front planning to move over Columbia Wednesday night and how drastically it will drop temperatures and if our atmosphere would be able to support any moisture associated with it. At this point, we think this mid-week front could pack more of a punch in terms of temperature drop, but the much-needed rain looks to stay north as it did this morning.
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