Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Wednesday - Sunny and windy. High: 80-84

 

 

Wednesday Night - Increasing clouds. Winds decrease. Low: 50-54

 

Thursday - Mostly cloudy, becoming sunny by afternoon. High: 56-60

Thursday Night - Clear skies. Low: 32-36

 

 

 

Friday - Sunny. High: 58-62

 

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Discussion: 

Today will be the last unusually warm day for awhile, with the high temperature expected to be in the low 80s. It will be a windy day as well, with winds of 15-25 mph and 35-40 mph gusts. A cold front will be moving through tonight starting around 7 pm, causing winds to die down and bringing mid-level clouds with it. High temperatures for the rest of the week will be in the upper 50s. Thursday will be a sunny day by the afternoon, and those clear skies will allow the temperatures to decrease into the low to mid 30s Thursday night. We'll end the week with another sunny day on Friday.

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Forecaster: Beasley, Sumrall

Issued:  9 AM CDT 14 October 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

A blend of GFS and SREF was used for this forecast. The main focus for this forecast period will be the cold front moving through tonight and how that will affect our temperatures.

Today, strong winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph are caused by a strong pressure gradient present over the midwest, as shown by the 500-mb chart. Southwesterly flow at the surface will aid in warm air advection. This paired with clear skies and ample sunshine will be responsible for increasing our temperatures into the low 80s. We will have clouds building in the area this evening ahead of the cold front, as well as a decrease in wind speeds.

A cold front is expected to move through tonight starting around 00Z. Temperatures will steadily decrease. Relative humidity will increase at the 700-mb level and will be responsible for the mid-level clouds that form ahead of the front. No precipitation is expected with this front as there is a dry layer from the surface to about 850-mb. Any precipitation would likely evaporate in this dry layer. Winds will shift to the northwest as the front moves through and will cause strong cold air advection. Clouds will decrease through the afternoon and evening, leading to clear skies. This will lead to radiational cooling, providing for lows in the mid 30s. Friday will be cooler with plenty of sunshine.