Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Monday Night: Becoming cloudy. Low: 51
Tuesday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 65
Tuesday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Chance of light rain possible. Low: 56
Wednesday Night: Cloudy and rainy. Low: 48
Discussion:
The end of this gorgeous weather looks to be coming to an end in the middle of this week, but in the meantime, enjoy the mild weather! Overnight, we expect to see some mid to upper-level clouds off to the north, light winds of less than 7 mph and a low temperature of 51. On Tuesday, we should see winds shift from the southwest to the northwest making tomorrow’s high noticeably cooler than today’s. Getting into the overnight hours of Tuesday, more clouds will be transitioning into the area, keeping the low temperature in the mid 50s. For Wednesday, the winds from the south-southwest return and strengthen causing the high temperature to be 67, even though there will be more clouds than the previous day. Wednesday night is where things get interesting as a cold front will sweep over the area causing rain, which will hopefully clear by morning, and a low temperature of 48.
-Alexander
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Forecasters: Alexander, Gromada, Gotsch
Date Issued: 11/08/21 5:00 PM CST
Technical discussion:
The past few days the region has experienced above normal temperatures along with a clear sky. Temperatures today topped out around the upper 60s and lower 70s with few clouds in the sky. Looking into the week ahead, temperatures will fall slightly with clouds moving back into the Mid-Missouri region. The 12Z run on the GFS was used for this forecast because of the better handling of both the high and low pressure systems and temperatures associated with these systems.
Clouds will be pushing into the Mid-Missouri region going into the overnight hours tonight ahead of a surface cold front that will be moving through the region tomorrow afternoon. A shortwave upper level trough to our west, along with the surface cold front pushes into the region tomorrow afternoon bringing in CAA. Before this trough moves out of the region Tuesday night it could bring in a few showers as our air becomes saturated due to the moisture train coming from the Gulf of Mexico. The precipitation totals or Tuesday night are not expected to be very much, possibly only a trace of precipitation may fall. The cold front is expected to stall over the region before shifting to our north as it becomes a warm front Wednesday morning. As our winds switch to a southerly flow Wednesday morning, moisture and cloud cover from the LLJ is expected to increase through the morning and afternoon hours. The best chance for precipitation is Wednesday evening as the long-wave trough pushes east bringing a fairly strong cold front along with it. With this cold front, precipitation totals are expected to reach up to half an inch Wednesday night. As the front and precipitation pushes through, drier air will move back into the region going into Thursday.
-Gromada
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