Monday, November 8, 2021



Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Sunny. High: 70

Monday Night:
Becoming cloudy. Low: 51

Mostly Cloudy. Sprinkles of rain possible. High: 65

Tuesday Night:
Mostly Cloudy. Chance of light rain possible. Low: 5                

Wednesday: Cloudy. High: 67

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Just like October, November seems to be bringing us above average temperatures! This week will start off seasonably warm in the 60s-70s, cooling off slightly Tuesday night due to a cold front making it's way through. Along with cooling things off, this cold front will also bring with is the possibility for some sprinkles of rain Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Rains should stay light, only amounting to around 1/16" for the beginning of this week. Look out for showers and cooler temperatures later in the week.

- Cade


Forecasters: Cade, Baker, Travis

Date Issued: 11/08/21 10:00 AM CST

Technical discussion:  

Seasonably warm temperatures for the beginning of the week will quickly head out of our direction as several cold fronts move through the area later this week. The GFS and NAM models displayed relative consensus for the zonal flow across the CONUS ahead of an amplified trough, as well as the temperature trend; however, areas of moisture and the placement of the systems and front, GFS detected more accurately. NAM seemed to not have a handling on the temperatures as much with the mid-level shortwave moving through, which led to the decision to utilize GFS as the main guide for this forecast.

 High level 70 knot winds at 250 hPa show east to southeast flow setting up for higher values of divergence to make its way into the area beginning Monday night will stick around the area until Tuesday afternoon. This is also apparent in 500 hPa with areas of spin and lift taking off Tuesday morning as it moves out of the area by the afternoon; however, high pressure to the southeast, limits the values of moisture and lift capabilities.  

With winds resuming to southerly flow, clouds begin to move into the area due to the return flow from the gulf Tuesday. A cold front will move through the area Tuesday, however, chances of rain are not to be dismissed, as the cold front could bring in some moisture with it, but will quickly die out as it is stripped of its moisture and power;  This is apparent at the 700 hPa level, as a small wave of moisture tries to makes its way into the area, but is unsuccessful due to the mid-level shortwave to the north of us. 

As the first cold front moves through the area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, winds resume to southerly and the winds begin to pick up; bringing in levels of moisture and more clouds. Temperatures at 850 hPa and surface will stay warmer at the beginning of the week and due to cloud cover, will try try to keep in as much of it as possible. Clouds are evident in the GFS sounding with evidence for light showers Tuesday into Tuesday night. However, an applied trough will make its way into the area Wednesday, which future forecast shifts should definitely be on the look out for. Temperature drops and precipitation are likely. 


1 comment:

  1. This is such a good forecast, keep up the good work! Best forecasters EVER