Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday Night: Becoming overcast. Low: 56

Wednesday: Overcast. Possible drizzle after noon. High: 67

Wednesday Night: Overcast. Rain showers overnight. Low: 48            

Thursday: Becoming Sunny. High: 56

  

 

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 34

 

 

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Discussion: 

I hope you enjoyed the warm and dry weather over the last few days. Cooler and wetter conditions are in store for the middle of the week. Increasing clouds ahead of a cold front are expected to move in to the region overnight on Tuesday.  The front is expected to pass late Wednesday, which should bring cooler temperatures and potential for rain overnight on Wednesday. Total rain fall accumulations will be around 0.3". Any precipitation will move out by Thursday morning, but much cooler and drier conditions can be expected.

- Duff

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Forecasters: Duff, Watts, Bongard

Date Issued: 11/09/21 5:00 PM CDT

Technical discussion:  

This forecast was developed using 06z run of the GFS20. The GFS20 model had slightly warmer temperatures while the  NAM40 was further off in terms of moisture and wind.

At 250mb a meridional trough-ridge flow is occurring that will bring an upper-level divergence to the Mid-Missouri region around 23z Tuesday. A strong jet will get stronger through Missouri along with the winds going into Thursday evening. Even though the Jetstream gets stronger over the Mid-Missouri region, it doesn’t hit its peak until after this forecasting period. 

500 mb will consist of positive vorticity advecting into the Mid-Missouri region coming from the south on Tuesday night. This activity will lead to precipitation changes. This initial vorticity pushes to the east won’t come back until late Thursday evening coming strongly from the northern Rockies.

At 700 mb moisture will persist with a trough drifting over the Kansas Missouri border followed by a low pressure system at 5z Thursday coming from the Northern Rockies and will stick around until 21z Thursday. This will keep cloudy conditions until Thursday afternoon. This results in the lower level trough that will bring low westerly winds Tuesday night that will shift Thursday night with stronger southerly winds of 50-60 knots.

850mb will consist of moisture with southerly winds of 20 knots persisting Tuesday night going into Wednesday morning with a low pressure system hitting Mid-Missouri at 06z Thursday with the moisture drying out later that night after frontal passage. Cold air advection associated with frontal passage will occur Thursday morning into the night with some light southerly winds of 10-15 knots occurring with total precipitation in Columbia being around .30” of rain.

-Watts