Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High: 49
Wednesday Night: Overcast. Low: 33
Thursday: Clearing sky. High: 51
Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 32
Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 53
Discussion: If you're already trying to get into the holiday spirit, hopefully these temperatures will help you out! This week will remain on the chilly side as we begin to transition into the cooler part of the season. The sun and clouds will be fighting for the spotlight throughout the end of the week with the daytime hours involving a bit of both.
- Macko
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Forecasters: Kobielusz, Macko, Bongard
Date Issued: 11/03/21 10:00 AM CST
Technical discussion:
Both the GFS20 and the NAM40 were accurately portraying the placement of high pressure systems; however, the NAM was running about 3 degrees cool while the GFS was running about 3 degrees warm. Plumes were used to evaluate continuity on model runs and ultimately the NAM40 06Z run was chosen for this forecast based on its greater similarities to the observed high pressure dominating the middle Mississippi Valley. Soundings were used to determine cloud cover.
Our upper level winds are being brought in from Canada by a weak jet streak barely making it into central Missouri, as observed on the 250-mb map. This jet streak moves east by Wednesday night and upper level winds shift from a northerly to a northwesterly component. By Friday an upper level ridge begins to make its way into Columbia as winds shift to the west and a weak jet streak moves into Missouri from Kansas. No divergence was observed over Columbia for the forecast period.
This shift in winds is reflected in the 500-mb map as well by indicating a weak amount of circulation as winds shift from the north to west.
Moisture will stay south of Columbia as showers pass in southern Missouri. Winds at 700-mb also show a change in wind direction from northerly on Wednesday to westerly on Friday. A slight amount of positive omega begins to develop Friday evening. Future forecast shifts may want to take this into account when forecasting.
Moisture levels at 850-mb are relatively low for the entire forecast period. There is also a lack of a low level jet until early Friday morning.
Winds at the surface are calm and have a southerly component. These southerly winds get stronger as the week progresses and will bring warmer temperatures by Friday.
- Kobielusz
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