Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Low: 47

Wednesday: Scattered clouds. High: 61

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 50

 

Thursday: Clear. High: 67

 

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 48

 

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Discussion:

November comes to an end with clouds and a chance for sprinkles on Tuesday night. These clouds clear up on Wednesday, as December gives a warm welcome with above average temperatures for the following few days, due to high pressure under a large ridge. The sky will remain clear and sunny, with temperatures reaching the high 60s Thursday afternoon. 

- VanUnnik

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Forecasters: VanUnnik, Watts, Bongard

Date Issued: 11/30/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:    

This forecast was developed using 12z run of the GFS model. The GFS model had higher wind speeds and temperatures that matched the initial conditions while NAM 40 had lower temperatures that didn't go along with the moisture in the forecast period.

At 250 mb there was a meridional flow in a ridge-trough pattern along with a jet stream coming from the northern Rockies drifting over the Mid-Missouri region tonight going into Wednesday morning, with stronger westerly winds shifting to northerly winds causing a shortwave to impact the region at 15z Wednesday.

500 mb chart consist of positive vorticity advecting over the Mid-Missouri region from the west with a ridge drifting over the Midwest throughout the forecast. This will cause moderate winds of 30 knots to transition into stronger winds of 50-60 knots.

 At 700mb moisture will persist 21z Tuesday and exits 12z Wednesday with cloud cover through Wednesday morning with westerly winds of 40 knots drifting across the Midwest with a chance of precipitation tonight going into Wednesday.

850 mb will consist of moisture Wednesday at 06z with westerly winds transitioning into northerly winds thanks to a shortwave passing over the region throughout this forecast.

Lower forecasted temperatures earlier this week were increased due to a significant warming trend in the model runs.

-Watts