Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High: 64

 

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 52

 

Thursday: Sunny. High: 70         

 

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 52

 

Friday: Sunny. High: 67

 

 

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Discussion: 

While it may be the first day of meteorological winter, our temperatures for the next few days are going to be feeling like spring. A warm front making its way into mid Missouri today will bring warmer air and raise our temperatures to near 20 degrees above average! Our forecasted temperature for Thursday is the same as it was May 31st, over six months ago! While our temperatures will be above average, our precipitation will be below average as there is no rain, or snow, in the forecast for the next several days.

-Kobielusz

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Forecasters: Kobielusz, Macko, Bongard

Date Issued: 12/1/21 10:00 AM CDT

Technical discussion: 

The 06Z run of the GFS20 assisted in the development of this forecast. The NAM40 failed to accurately predict overnight low temperatures as it was 10 degrees too cool. Predicted 06Z GFS20 soundings were used to help determine cloud cover.

As the day progresses on Wednesday, the upper-level jet at 250-mb will push through the state of Missouri. This jetstream will remain eastbound overnight as a strong zonal flow becomes prevalent across the Midwest. By the daylight hours on Thursday, Missouri will no longer be under the influence of the jet, though zonal flow persists. Upper-level divergence associated with the precipitation late Tuesday and early Wednesday weakens considerably Wednesday before dissipating.

 500-mb vorticity plots suggest that circulation is not to be expected after Wednesday morning.

The 700-mb level starts Wednesday off with high moisture. However, the layer begins to dry out by late morning.  This region of the atmosphere will remain dry through the end of the forecast period.

At 850-mb, a warm front is evident. Its passage on Wednesday will bring warmer temperatures through the end of the week. A low-level jet is expected to enter Missouri overnight on Wednesday before heading further east on Tuesday. Since Columbia will fall under a weaker region of this LLJ, it will have little effect on the weather here, but may bring cooler temperatures to the northern part of the state. The ridge pattern over Missouri will persist through the end of the week, allowing for some sunshine.

Modeled 06Z GFS20 soundings suggest that some moisture may exist in the upper-levels of the atmosphere on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Thus, some high clouds are likely to persist during the day into the evening on Wednesday. Clouds are not expected past Wednesday night.

Future forecast shifts should be aware that the GFS20, although having greater accuracy when predicting temperatures, is still running cold. While the GFS20 can still be used in helping determine temperatures, the forecasters' intuition is crucial, and full reliance on the models may result in inaccuracy.

- Macko