Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 49
 

Friday: Bright. High: 67
 

Friday Night: Cooler. Low: 39
 

Saturday: Clouds in the afternoon. High: 52

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, chance of showers early morning. Low: 45

 

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Discussion: 

Warm temperatures continue into Thursday night finishing out a nearly 70 degree day on the 2nd of December. Sunshine will come again Friday with temperatures remaining well above average for the month of December. This day of sunshine gives the perfect opportunity to celebrate the holiday season outdoors. These warm temperatures will begin to drop as a weak cold front will move through Friday night from the Northwest. Saturday morning will have a sunny sky, but clouds will begin to form in the afternoon. Winds from the south will keep temperatures from dropping too low in the evening. Late Saturday night to early Sunday morning, the sky will see an increased amount of clouds with a slight chance for early morning precipitation. 

- Heienickle

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Forecasters: Heienickle, Meyer, Orr

Date Issued: 12/2/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical discussion: 

For this forecast, a blend of the GFS and NAM was used. The NAM has shown a noticeable cool bias over the last several days. Furthermore, the surface temperature at the time of the forecast was a few degrees warmer than the NAM. Therefore, the GFS was mainly used for forecasting temperatures. However, the NAM had a better handle on where the various weather systems are in the US, particularly in materializing a high over the northern plains. So the NAM was used for sky conditions along with precipitation.

Quiet weather prevails over Central Missouri for the next several days. This is shown by the lack of wind divergence in the 250-mb level, along with the jet streak which remains over the northern tier of the CONUS through the majority of the forecast period. No circulation is present over Missouri through most of the week into the weekend. Vorticity values remain to our north over the Great Lakes, and to our south over the Arklatex. Relative humidity values at the 700-mb level also remain low over the next several days, keeping Central Missouri relatively free of cloud cover.

Due to a ridge over the central plains at the 250-mb level with a southwesterly flow, temperatures look to remain well above average over the next several days. By 18Z Friday, a cold front moves its way into Mid-Missouri. At the surface, our winds turn out of the north due to the frontal passage. However, low RH values at the 700-mb level suggest a dry passage with little in the way of clouds. The cold front is followed by a high pressure to Missouri’s north which places Missouri under a northerly flow through the day on Saturday, suggesting Saturday will be cooler than Friday. The lack of any significant cold air intrusion at the 850mb-level suggests temperatures will be seasonable for early December.

Those northerly winds quickly turn out of the southwest past 00Z Sunday. RH values slowly increase to higher levels around the same time, suggesting clouds will begin to build into Missouri by 00Z Sunday. The sudden shift in wind direction, along with the increase in humidity is suggestive of a warm front passage ahead of our next system. With Warm Air Advection at the 850-mb level beginning after 00Z Sunday, our overnight lows will be on the warmer side, not dropping much. With the increase of relative humidity values, NAM & GFS soundings suggest some saturation in the lower levels, creating the possibility of some light rainfall after 12Z Sunday. Future forecasters should monitor the passage of that next shortwave during the day on Sunday.

 - Meyer