Friday, December 3, 2021

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Friday Night:
 Scattered high clouds. Low: 38

 Cooler with high clouds. High: 52

Saturday Night:
 Increasing clouds. Low: 40

 Overcast, chance for light rain in the morning. High: 65

 Sunday Night:
Cloudy and colder. Low: 30


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A mild weekend is in store for Mizzou students with the unseasonably warm temperatures slowly decreasing back to winter levels overnight on Sunday. Some clouds expected on Friday and Saturday, then increasing to overcast conditions on Sunday. A chance of light rain is possible early Sunday morning as well. Mostly calm and warm weather throughout the weekend. It will be an excellent opportunity to put up those holiday decorations.

- Ethridge


Forecasters: Ethridge, Millsap, Travis

Date Issued: 12/3/21 10:00 AM CST

Technical discussion: 

This forecast made use of the GFS model as well as sounding data and SREF plumes. The most notable problems for this weekend are a chance for light rain early on Sunday as well as high temperatures throughout the weekend. 

At the 250 hPa level, the jet stream stays to the north of Missouri until late Sunday night. Zonal flow is seen over the region with shifts to the northwest on Saturday and then southwest on Sunday. This southwesterly flow is driven by a trough starting to move over Missouri as the weekend draws to a close. The same trend can be seen at the 500 hPa level with any circulation staying to the north of Columbia until Monday.

Moisture also stays to the north of the forecast region for most of the weekend. The 700 hPa level shows some atmospheric moisture in northern Missouri, but very little in the central region of the state. The sounding, however, does appear to suggest some very light rain is possible on Sunday morning but it does not seem definitive. 

When the jet stream moves south over our region again late Sunday night, the winds shift to northerly at the 850 hPa level, as well as the surface, and cold winter temperatures return to our area. Until then, however, it looks like a very warm and mild weekend. 


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