Monday, December 6, 2021



Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Clear. High: 38

Monday Night:
Becoming Cloudy. Low: 27

Cloudy. Chance of afternoon snow flurries. High: 37

Tuesday Night:
Partly Cloudy. Low: 28

Clear. High: 48


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Winter weather has arrived! Strong winds brought in below average temperatures that swept the area this morning. Temperatures won't warm up much, but sunshine will hopefully keep it feeling warmer. Clouds begin to roll in Monday night into Tuesday. Snow flurries in the late morning through the afternoon, Tuesday are likely. The storm quickly gets out of our area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Leading to above average temperatures and sunshine on Wednesday.



Forecasters: Baker, Cade, Travis

Date Issued: 12/06/21 10:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:    

It's finally starting to feel like December as highs dip into the 30s and snow becomes a topic of conversation. A blend of NAM and GFS was used for this forecast.

Both NAM and GFS show meridional flow at the 300-250mb level for the entire forecast period. Upper level winds dip down over the middle Mississippi river valley on Monday, allowing for cold, polar air to make it's way into the area. On Tuesday, divergence moves into the area in pockets, with the most divergence in the afternoon. This leads to the possibility of storms and potentially some winter weather. For Wednesday, ridging appears to move into the area, leaving calmer conditions behind it.

At the 500 mb level, there are high levels of vorticity that appear on Monday for both NAM and GFS. These values grow and seem to peak Tuesday afternoon, which could potentially cause some kind of precipitation. For Wednesday, ridging is still evident.

Omega values are low for Monday at the 700 mb level. GFS shows low RH values for Monday, but rising RH for Tuesday into Tuesday afternoon. NAM shows this rise in RH values as well as a rise in Omega values Tuesday afternoon. Pairing this with the divergence and vorticity that appears at this time, the chance for precipitation is evident. For Wednesday, the atmosphere dries out.

A strong LLJ is present at the 850 mb level, causing strong northerly winds. The LLJ seems to weaken into Tuesday, and is not apparent for Wednesday either. At the surface, CAA is evident with solenoids and a tight PGF on Monday. Tuesday, winds shift to the south, bringing in sufficient moisture to produce precipitation. The 540 thickness line rides the middle Mississippi river valley, leading to forecasted snow for Tuesday afternoon. On Wednesday, winds seem to stay southerly and WAA takes over.


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