Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday: Increasing clouds. High: 48

 

Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Low: 37

 

Thursday: Clearing sky throughout the day. High: 60         

 

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 42

 

Friday: Building clouds. High: 68

 

 

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Discussion: 

If all you want for Christmas is some warmer weather, fear not--we'll be leaving some of these chilly temperatures behind later this week. Despite some cloudiness Wednesday night, sunshine is to be expected on Wednesday and Thursday, but the sky will turn overcast early Friday. Don't be surprised if you feel a raindrop or two when leaving campus on Friday afternoon! This will be the best chance of rain this week, although only trace accumulations are expected.

 

- Macko

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Forecasters: Kobielusz, Macko, Bongard

Date Issued: 12/8/21 10:00 AM CDT

Technical discussion: 

For this forecast, the 06Z run of the GFS was chosen. Both the NAM and the GFS were spot on with the placement of a low pressure system in northern Illinois and an area of high pressure in the Rockies, but the GFS had values closer to recorded pressure. Both the NAM and the GFS were also running cool, but the NAM was running about 10 degrees cool while the GFS was only running a few degrees cool. Soundings were also used to assess cloud cover and the potential for rain.

Meridional flow is dominating the entirety of the CONUS placing a trough to Missouri’s east and west and a ridge moving west into Missouri as Wednesday progresses. Flow changes to become zonal overnight and continue into Thursday when a strong jet will entrench itself just north of Missouri. Winds on Friday shift back to meridional as a well defined trough forms in the Dakotas.

Vorticity builds overnight Wednesday in Kansas which will make its way into Missouri by early Thursday morning. This vorticity continues to push east as the day progresses and by Thursday night, central Missouri is clear of vorticity until Friday when vorticity builds throughout the day to the end of the forecast period.

Missouri will be considerably dry until Friday when upper level moisture from Kansas begins to make its way into Missouri.

Winds near the surface will be out of the west on Wednesday but will shift to the southwest overnight bringing dry, warmer air into Thursday morning. Friday an area of low pressure from Nebraska makes its way into the Mississippi Valley, which will shift winds back to a westerly component during the evening hours on Friday.

A deep moisture profile overnight on Wednesday indicates that there will be the presence of clouds but those clouds should begin to clear during the day on Thursday. Low clouds begin to develop early Friday morning. If moisture prevails, there could be trace amounts of rain early Friday morning. Future forecast shifts should keep an eye on this.

Since the last forecast shift used the NAM and the NAM was running considerably cold, a decision was made to bump up Thursdays high by 10 degrees despite the rule of four. Timing of cloud cover and a shift in winds also made it more likely that the temperature would be warmer. Future forecast shifts may want to bump up Thursdays high more.

-Kobielusz